Lightning Disaster Premium Design Based On Lightning Prediction And Risk Assessment

Nowadays,the casualties and economic losses caused by the lightning disaster are becoming more and more serious,and the call for the study of lightning is becoming more and more intense.This paper tries to provide feasible lightning prediction and lightning risk management plan through analyzing the lightning data and the social and cultural environment of the region,and realizes the establishment of a complete lightning research system.First,we introduce the background significance of lightning research,and make sure that the significance of lightning research is to fully understand the lightning activities and the risk of lightning disasters,which can reduce the negative effects of thunder and lightning on human society and reduce or decentralize the risk of lightning disasters.Then,through the analysis of the research situation outside the country,we know that the stage of lightning research is still in the primary stage,and the research system of lightning activity is not perfect yet,and the research system of lightning is mainly composed of three parts.Based on the research of lightning activity phenomenon and the risk impact study of lightning activity,and then to the order of lightning disaster risk supportability research,this paper is divided into three parts to discuss and analyze the process of lightning activity system research one by one.In the first part,we mainly analyze the parameters of lightning activity phenomenon,and use the historical data observation records,through the time series analysis and introduce the model of ARIMA-SVM to build long-term prediction model of lightning parameters.Then,based on the historical data of lightning phenomena in Jiangsu Province,the lightning activity prediction example is analyzed,and the time series model that can effectively fit the daily variation of lightning is obtained.So we can get the prediction of lightning day in Jiangsu Province in 2017 based on the historical data between 2010-2016.The second part is to build a lightning risk assessment system,so that disaster factors,disaster environment and bearing capacity are the main risk factors,and appropriate risk assessment indicators are selected for risk assessment analysis.This chapter also introduces the related theory of improved entropy weight principal component analysis,and makes an example analysis of the lightning risk situation in Jiangsu province.The lightning risk zoning of Jiangsu province is divided into four parts.The high risk areas are Suzhou,Nanjing,Wuxi and Nantong.The high-risk areas are Yangzhou,Huaian and Yancheng.The middle risk areas are Changzhou,Taizhou and Suqian.The results of the risk assessment are in accordance with the actual disaster losses in Jiangsu,and the evaluation results are good.The third part,through the introduction of the insurance of natural disasters,leads into the insurance of lightning disaster.Through the feasibility of the theory of lightning disaster insurance and the feasibility of the implementation of the lightning disaster,the insurability of the lightning disaster insurance is discussed.As one of the natural disasters,lightning disaster is analyzed and learned from natural disasters,and a risk dispersion mode based on commercial insurance and government subsidy insurance is put forward,and a reasonable insurance pricing scheme is formulated according to the insurance mode.