The Lightning Schedule Research And Regional Lightning Disaster Risk Analysis

This paper introduced the principle of maximum entropy application in meteorology firstly, studied the corresponding relationship between the lightning frequency and the total lightning, and found that they showed a negative correlation. That is when the total lightning is constant, the high frequency of lightning probability is small, the low frequency of lightning probability is large. Then established lightning schedule equation according to the relationship between the relative lightning quantity and the relative duration time. Using lightning location system measured data from2000to2009of Jiangsu province fitting curve to inspect the equation, and found that the results are in conformity with the fitting results, and use the actual measured data from2010to2011to predicate, found the prediction level is higher. Thus prove that the reasonableness of using the maximum entropy principle to analysis the lightning frequency time development of variation.As lightning occurs is accompanied by lightning current drain on the earth easy causing thunder and lightning disasters. In order to further research the characteristics of lightning disaster risk, the second part of this paper established a lightning disaster risk assessment model by the information diffusion principle, using this model to analysis the total number of lightning disaster, the total number of personal injury and economic losses of Jiangsu province in recent ten years, and make an overall evaluation of risk. The result shows that the thunder of lightning calamity accident risk mainly concentrated in300per year, casualties risk level are mainly concentrated in35people per year, and the risk level is relatively high, the risk value of500wan per year cumulative probability as high as85.79%. In addition, the major lightning disaster risk level of Jiangsu province mainly concentrated between18times and36times per year, its cumulative probability as high as58.14%.Jiangsu Province is at the multi minefield, through the lightning disaster risk evaluation model analysis, and found the lightning disaster risk level of Jiangsu Province is high. So we finally analyze the space-time distribution of lightning disasters of Jiangsu province. Through analysis we found that the lightning disasters in Jiangsu province show clear ascendant trend in recent ten years, the lightning disaster happens in strong convective weather, particularly strong from June to August, the residents and petrochemical inflammable and explosive industry suffered lightning risk probability is bigger, most damage types is electronic and electrical system failure. The lightning disasters and the annual average thunderstorm has certain relevance. it is not obvious correlated with Ei-Nino event, but appear a better negative correlation with la Nina event. The vulnerability degree of risk roughly south higher than north trend, it is slight deviate in the area of economic better development.In this paper, we study the lightning calendar can provide macro guidance for lightning disaster risk analysis, the risk level of lightning disaster area, can provide local engineering sitting, construction, thunder and lightning disaster risk assessment and scientific basis for the establishment of laws, regulations and policies, and provides reference of lightning disasters in other parts of the risk analysis.