| Understanding the relationship between distribution of suitable habitat space and environmental factors has significance on protection of species.Arborophila gingica is a globally vulnerable species.The distribution locations were obtained through field investigation,visit and referring to related literatures and distribution directory,and the habitat suitability was evaluated through 3s technological platform combined with MaxEnt model.The analysis and verification was carried out in a small area Damingshan Mountain,and then analyzed in the overall distribution research area.The analytical result of Damingshan Mountain was taken as the precision analysis of MaxEnt model so as to discuss the model analysis result in the overall distribution research area.Firstly,such nine variables as annual average temperature,annual average precipitation,road distance,residential area distance,water body distance,altitude,exposure,gradient and NDVI were taken as the evaluation factors for habitat suitability evaluation and protection vacancy analysis.For species in Guangxi,Guangdong,Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Zhejiang,and neighboring provinces as an overall distribution area,the existing suitable habitat distribution was analyzed by vegetation coverage type,NDVI,altitude,exposure,gradient,residential area distance,road distance,water body distance combined with the selected bioclimatic variable factors.Moreover,the predictive analysis was made for the suitability of Arborophila gingica in the future using bioclimatic factor in different RCPs situations in the BCC-CSM1.1 climatic mode system.The main results of the research are as below:(1)In the model analysis of Damingshan Mountain,the precision evaluation reaches an excellent level,and annual average temperature,exposure,gradient,road distance and water body distance are the main influence factors of such regional analysis.The contribution rates are 42.20%,20.40%,16.90%,6.80%and 5.10%.(2)In Damingshan Mountain,a suitable distribution habitat is obtained with a 10%TPLT threshold.Through model analysis,it is known,the suitable habitat conforms to the investigation result,so the model analysis precision reaches a certain level.Total suitable distribution area is 87.92km2,and GAP analysis shows that conservation area covers a 76.75km2 suitable habitat,and 11.17km2(12.71%)suitable habitat is out of the conservation area.(3)In the research on the overall distribution area,the temperature seasonal variation(bio4),the highest temperature in the coldest month(bio5),annual average temperature difference(bio7),average temperature in the warmest season(bio 10),seasonal precipitation change(bio 15)and precipitation in coldest season(bio 19)are selected as main environmental variables according to the contribution rate.(4)The model precision of the overall distribution research area reaches an excellent level.Through analysis,it is known,the area of suitable habitat is 26,698.32km2,mainly located in Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Jiangxi,and Hunan,which are consistent with the investigation result.Of them,Fujian province covers largest area of suitable hahitat.(5)In the climatic situations of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the area of suitable habitat in 2050 is 20685.76km2,16696.80km2 and 12511.10km2,and the area of suitable habitat in 2070 is 20468.63km2,15641.69km2 and 112068.35km2.The area of suitable habitat decreases to varying degrees in different situations.(6)In the model analysis,Arborophila gingica is greatly affected by climatic change.Combined with constant decrease of suitable habitat on the future climatic condition,the greatly affected suitable habitat in North of Guangdong,and Northwest of Fujian should be protected greatly.Meanwhile,research on ecosystem change should be strengthened so as to realize protection of biodiversity. |
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