Prediction Of Habitat Suitability And Population Viability Analysis Of El

Pére David’s deer(Elaphurus davidianus),an endemic rare species in China,is a successful case of the reintroduction of wild extinct species,which gave a mode of reintroduction of wild life in biodiversity conservation.And thus learn more about the potential habits suitable for this deer living and its populations survival ability are important.Such as the potential habitat suitability of Pere David’s deer can provide ecological information and a scientific basis for further conservation of this species,it also can provide reference for the area expansion and population propagation in the future.In this study,15 distribution sites of free/semi-free populations and 11 environmental variables that may affect the distribution of Pere David’s deer were used to predict the most likely potential habitat and analyze its limiting factors by contrasting two conditions:natural conditions and human disturbance conditions based on the MaxEnt model.The study collected population characteristics data from the Beijing Pere David Deer Park,Beijing and Dafeng Pere David Deer Nature Reserve,Jiangsu Province,in order to complete a population viability analysis by using the Vortex model.The results indicate that:(1)When considering nature factors,the total potential habitat area for Pere David’s deer in China reached 4791795.3km2,accounting for 49.8%of China’s total land area,in which the area of high suitable habitat was 526056.3 km2,accounting for 5.5%of the total land area of China and mainly distributed in the humid plains in the east-central region.The environmental factors with the higher modeling contribution were altitude,aspect,and vegetation types.When adding considering human activity factors,the potential habitat of Pere David’s deer reduced by 13.5%of the total land area,and the area of highly suitable habitat was reduced to 317808.3 km2,accounting for only 3.3%of the total land area in China,the habitat showed an obvious trend of fragmentation.The optimal altitude threshold is lowered from 647 m for nature condition to 635 m for human influencing condition,and the range of suitable altitude values is decreased and moved to lower altitude overall.There was no obvious negative correlation between the presence probability of Pere David’s deer and human disturbance variables,this may be related to the reintroduced provenances spread sites are close to anthropic zone.(2)The intrinsic growth rate of population in the Beijing Père David Deer Park is 0.1531,the increment rate per unit is 0.1654,the mean generation time is 6.63 years,and the minimum viable population size is 11.The main limiting factor is Carrying capacity.The intrinsic growth rate of the population in Dafeng Père David Deer Nature Reserve is 0.1926,the increment rate per unit is 0.2124,the mean generation time is 7.49,and the minimum survival population is 6.The main limiting factor is the initial population size.The results showed that the population growth of Dafeng population was better than that of Beijing population,and the minimum viable population was smaller,so Dafeng was more suitable for the growth and reproduction of Pere David’s deer populations than Beijing.According to the study’s findings,approximately 50%of the land in China can be used as potential habitat of Pere David’s deer,and the potential habitat with medium and high suitability accounts for 25.5%of the total land area of China.Therefore,it is suggested to carry out extensive reintroduction of Pere David’s deer,expand the protection area,and actively promote the ex-situ conservation.The dominant factors of habitat distribution and population viability analysis provided specific directions for the selection of diffusion sites,that is,the low altitude wetland habitat.The minimum viable population can be used as the minimum index of the number of released Pere David’s deer.Meanwhile,the problems caused by human disturbance should not be ignored.It is suggested to improve and strengthen the patrol and monitoring of the protected area,reduce the negative impacts brought by human,and strengthen the positive effects of artificial assistance in disease prevention and control,and improvement of environmental tolerance,aim to achieve the goal of harmonious coexistence between human and nature.