Risk Assessment Of Water And Land Resources Uncertainty In Heilongjiang Province

In recent years,Heilongjiang Province has integrated cultural construction and ecological civilization construction with the improvement of people's livelihood.The comprehensive reform of modern agriculture in the "two plains" has risen to a major national development strategy and has accelerated the shift from a major agricultural province to a strong agricultural province in Heilongjiang Province.However,with the rapid economic development,industrial water consumption in the province has been continuously increasing.The land for construction has accounted for 31.7% of the total land area of the province,while nearly 13.3% of the land has not been effectively utilized.The industrialization and urbanization have squeezed agricultural water and soil The momentum of resources is hard to reverse,and the contradiction between social and agricultural development and water and soil resources is even more acute.Therefore,it is urgent to analyze the system of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province,clarify the existing problems of soil and water resources and find the optimal solution to improve the output efficiency of agricultural resources and the social and economic support.The purpose of this study is to take the socio-economic-ecological sustainable development as the guiding ideology.According to the existing problems of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province,we first evaluate the extent of water shortage in Heilongjiang Province and find the main factors affecting the water shortage.Secondly,Resource impact on water resources,and then find the lagging factor and reduce the risk of water shortage,and finally the coupling analysis and prediction of water and land resources,providing a theoretical basis for the socio-economic-ecological development of Heilongjiang Province.The main contents and achievements of this study are as follows:(1)Determine the research content.Through the analysis of the status quo of natural resources in Heilongjiang Province,the production of agricultural industry and the status quo of the exploitation and utilization of water and land resources,the role of water and land resources in determining the role of water and land resources is clarified.The existing problems of water and land resources are clarified.On the basis of clarifying the actual problems,it also aims to propose mitigation plans and explore future research directions.Therefore,after assessing the extent of the water shortage risk,we continued to study the drivers of the shortage risk.At the same time taking into account the land resources have a great impact on water resources,and then conducted a degree of coupling analysis of water and soil resources.At present,there are few studies on water and soil resources as a composite system,and the trend of synergistic water and soil resources inthe future is not clear.Therefore,coordinated and orderly analysis and prediction are finally carried out.(2)Assessment of Water Shortage Risk in Heilongjiang Province in.Based on the international and national evaluation standards and the research results of many scholars,and combining with the actual situation of natural economy in Heilongjiang Province,17 evaluation indexes of 4 criteria layers were selected.Taking the whole Heilongjiang Province and its 13prefecture-level cities as evaluation objects in 2014,The matter-element model evaluates the risk of water shortage and calculates the weight of the index using entropy method.The analysis shows that the overall shortage of water resources in Heilongjiang Province is at the medium level of risk level III.There is a large spatial difference in the level of water shortage risk in the 13prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province.The risk of water shortage is concentrated in the eastern and western regions,Lower and higher ".Among them,Hegang,Shuangyashan,Daqing and Jiamusi are all at a high risk level V,which shows that the shortage of water resources in Heilongjiang Province is quite serious.(3)Driving Forces of Water Shortage Risk.In order to clarify the main factors affecting the water shortage and the positive and negative impact of the factors,a driving force analysis is carried out on the basis of water shortage risk assessment.Taking the change of water as the criterion and the average water consumption of 2010-2014 as the reference,the average value of Decker's decomposition method is used to calculate the average value of the four criteria in the primary,secondary and tertiary industries Total effect of changes in the amount of water use.Through the analysis of influential factors,it is concluded that the resource endowments and water environmental standards layer can inhibit the utilization of water resources in Heilongjiang Province and reduce the shortage of water resources,which should be vigorously developed.The socioeconomic and water resources utilization guidelines make use of water resources in Heilongjiang Province Play a catalytic role and exacerbate the shortage of water resources.Therefore,we should try our best to control the water consumption of these two guidelines and reduce the risk of water shortage.(4)The Choice of Optimizing Water and Soil Resources.Water and soil resources are mutually influencing.The key to ease the shortage of water resources is to achieve the maximum coupling and coordination between the economy and utilization of water resources and the development of land resources.In the aspect of optimizing the route selection,from the two aspects of social economy and development and utilization,eleven indicators of social economy and development and utilization of land resources were selected and coupled and coordinated with the corresponding criteria of water resources.According to the analysis,the overall coupling level of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province in 2014 is 0.5,which is at moderate coordination level of antagonistic coupling,and the land resources lag slightly,and the coupling degree of water and soil resources is antagonistic coupling.The socio-economic coordination of land and water resources is harmony and coordination,which is better than the coordination ofdevelopment and utilization of water and soil resources.The coupling degree of all regions in Heilongjiang Province is antagonistic coupling.The coordination degree is highly coordinated except for the Greater Hinggan Mountains region,while other regions are moderately coordinated.In Daqing and Yichun,the water resources lag seriously in terms of economic coupling,and the utilization of water resources in Daqing,Hegang and Jiamusi lags behind.It can be seen that Daqing should focus on the analysis of the coupling of water and land resources.Through the analysis above,we determine the optimal path,which takes the dual optimization of water resource lag and lag of land resources in time and space.From the aspects of constraint and promotion,we put forward water resources suitability management,rational allocation of land resources and industrialization Upgrade and ecological protection zone construction and other optimization methods.(5)Collaborative and Ordinal Analysis and Prediction of Water and Soil Resources.The study is based on the theory of the boundary between shell and shell.The shell and the theory of interdependence are interdependent.Boundary shell theory is the theoretical basis for solving the problem.Synergy theory quantifies the boundary shell theory.According to the principle of regionality,hierarchy,discreteness,computability and comparability,15 evaluation indexes of three criteria layers were determined.Particle swarm optimization projection pursuit model was used to calculate the weights of indexes.The maximum iteration number Dmax was 50,The weight value is more objective.In the process of actual evaluation,the 2014 data of Heilongjiang Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities were selected as the evaluation object,TOPSIS distance coordination model was used to improve the degree of order calculation,and the more accurate chi-square distance was selected for calculation.In the aspect of system coordination degree calculation,Adding the gray relational degree calculation in the original calculation process is more conducive to identify the main factors that affect the degree of system coordination.The final assessment results showed that the comprehensive synergistic degree of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province was 0.3970,and the comprehensive synergistic risk level of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province and its 13 regions was moderate,which was characterized by "low north-south and high east-west".In order to clarify the trend of synergistic and orderly risks of soil and water resources in the future,using dynamic neural network time series rolling forecasting to 2020 and analyzing the trend of the curve from 2003 to 2020,the change of order degree is the most important factor affecting system risk level.In summary,through the study and analysis of the utilization of water and land resources and the risks of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities,the degree of development and utilization of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province and the supportive capacity of regional water and soil resources for the development of human society can be summed up A full understanding.In view of the problems of water resources shortage in Heilongjiang Province in the development of soil and water resources,the poor coordination between economy and utilization of water and soil resources and the weak coordination of soil andwater resources,taking the present value of 2014 in Heilongjiang Province as an example,On the basis of this,the constructed LMDI model and neural network are used to predict the driving factors of water resources and the future dynamic of water and land resources in different periods,so that the Heilongjiang Prediction and analysis of the water and soil resources status in each year of grain yield increase provides theoretical guidance for the sustainable utilization of regional water and soil resources and the protection of regional food security.