Study On The Temporal And Spatial Variation Characteristics Of Agricultural Caloric Resources In Xinjiang Under The Background Of Climate Change

Heat is one of the most important climatic factors that affect the production of agriculture and animal husbandry.Regional crop distribution,varieties,cropping system,cultivation and farming activities and pasture types,livestock species distribution is closely related with the heat conditions.Domestic and foreign agricultural climate scientists have identified and analyzed the heat as the main agricultural climate resources,and it is an important indicator of agricultural climate zoning.Based on 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang 1961-2010 years of daily temperature data,using linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and t test,accumulative anomaly and ArcGIS spatial interpolation technology and other modern technology methods under the background of global warming,Xinjiang 196l-2010 seasonal and annual mean temperature,annual mean maximum and average minimum temperature,average temperature diurnal and less than 0 DEG C,less than 5 DEG C,less than 10 DEG C,less than 15 DEG C,boundary temperature more than 20 DEG C for the first and last day,the duration of active accumulated temperature,first and last frost and the frost free period,the coldest month,the month average temperature of agricultural and animal husbandry production of all kinds of heat elements closely analyzed.Research results show that: The four seasons and the annual average temperature rise,the limit of temperature increases,the frostless period is prolonged,the warmest month,the coldest month average temperature and the winter extreme lowest temperature rise.The specific trends and features are as follows:(1)The average annual temperature,the annual average temperature,the lowest temperature,the coldest month,the hottest month average temperature,the annual minimum temperature,the limit temperature and the number of days and the frost-free period and other heat resources,climate factors were significantly increased or increased(Low)and low(less),and the spatial distribution pattern of the high(mostly)and low(less)in the plains and basins.The elements were in the mid-1980 s to the 1990s(After the mutation),the magnitude of the increase(increase)after the mutation was larger than that in the northern part of the Yangtze River.Spatial distribution pattern.(2)The first day of the boundary temperature and the final frost day are significantly ahead of the trend,the spatial distribution of "southern Xinjiang early,northern Xinjiang;plains and basins early,mountain late" characteristics.;(3)The spatial distribution of the boundary temperature and the first frost day has the characteristics of "late southern Xinjiang,early in northern Xinjiang;late in the plains and basins",and the trend of change is mostly significant.;(4)The spatial distribution of the annual mean temperature difference in Xinjiang is mainly composed of "plains and basins,small mountainous areas,small southern Xinjiang,small in northern Xinjiang and large in eastern and western small " Pattern;overall showed a very significant reduction trend,and in 1987,a mutation occurred.Nearly 52 a Xinjiang annual average temperature difference between the decreasing trend of "North Xinjiang,southern Xinjiang small;large basin,small mountain" features.;Effects on the temporal and spatial variation of heat resources in Xinjiang agricultural comprehensive understanding of climate change,to adapt and respond to climate change,take advantage of agricultural and animal husbandry production management and technical measures,the development and application of agricultural climate resources fully and reasonably,has very important significance to promote the ecological environment of agriculture and animal husbandry in Xinjiang sustained and stable economic development and protect the fragile.