Study On The Effect Of Climate Change On Agricultural Productivity In China

In the severe situation of global climate change,China has been the main sensitive area.Since 1961,China's climate warming trend has continued,and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as extreme high temperature and extreme heavy precipitation have become stronger(China Meteorological Administration,2019).Agriculture is subject to characteristics such as dependence on climate factors,fragility,and high risk,and is significantly affected by climate change.Climate change not only changes the conditions such as temperature and precipitation on which agricultural production depends,but also leads to frequent occurrence of extreme weather events and poses a great threat to agriculture.Agriculture,as the foundation of the national economy,is currently based on the historical juncture in which agriculture has turned to high-quality development.In the face of the severe challenges of climate change,it is urgent to break through the bottlenecks of agricultural inefficient production methods and resources and environment,and to achieve a new balance between high-quality agricultural development,environmental ecology and social needs.Agricultural productivity can take into account the goals and means of high-quality agricultural development,which is of great significance for the transition of agriculture to high-quality and green sustainable development.Therefore,studying how climate change affects agricultural productivity can provide a quantity to meet the requirements of the era of green and sustainable development,scientifically advance the response to climate change,disaster prevention and mitigation,and the construction of ecological civilization,further promote the transformation of agricultural economic structure,and achieve high-quality agricultural development.Information and policy space.The specific research ideas and contents are as follows: Based on a review of relevant literature research,through in-depth interpretation of representative climate-economic theoretical models,combing out the mechanism of climate change on agricultural productivity and building a theoretical analysis foundation.An important basic work in the research is the measurement of agricultural productivity.This article introduces the idea of factor quality adjustment from the perspective of multi-factor productivity,and uses the growth accounting method to measure the total factor productivity of agriculture in China and provinces from 1998 to 2017;also considers the environment Factors,the combination of DDF and GML index is used to measure agricultural green total factor productivity.Based on a large number of data collected and calculated,a comparative analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change and agricultural productivity in China and various sub-regions is made.Furthermore,from the perspectives of general climatic factors and extreme weather events,the complex effects of climate change on agricultural productivity were examined in depth based on different technical tools.The main analysis results show that air temperature,precipitation,and humidity have significant effects on agricultural productivity,and a non-linear relationship between precipitation,humidity,sunlight,and agricultural productivity is fitted.There are some differences in the effects of different grouping levels;The mechanism test reflects the existence of the impact mechanism of climate change on agricultural productivity through output,input and structure.The empirical analysis of the synthetic control method based on counterfactual thinking tests the extreme negative effects of extreme weather events on agricultural productivity in the affected areas,and has a dynamic and continuous effect.Quantitative results have practical significance for achieving "climate-smart" agriculture,accelerating high-quality agricultural development and green sustainable development.