Study On The Spillover Effect Of Traffic Infrastructure In Sichuan Province

The traffic infrastructure has been playing an important role in the development of the national economy.The impact of the traffic base on the economy includes two aspects:direct effect and spillover effect(indirect effect).On one hand,perfect traffic infrastructure can reduce the cost of capital flow and improve the accessibility of space;On the other hand,traffic infrastructure has typical network characteristics.It means that the improvement of a regional traffic infrastructure not only brings economic growth in the region,but also has an impact on the economic development of adjacent areas.Some scholars have studied the spillover effects of traffic infrastructure in China.They generally believe that traffic infrastructure has positive spillover effects on economic growth.Does that conclusion also reflect at the provincial level? At present,few scholars have done relevant research.However,it is necessary to study traffic infrastructure's effect on economic growth at the provincial level.Because many policies and measures concerning traffic construction layout and economic development are formulated by the provincial government.Therefore,considering the problem from a provincial point of view can provide reference and suggestions for the formulation of relevant policies.Sichuan provincial government has always attached great importance to the development of the comprehensive transportation."12th Five-Year" is the period with the most comprehensive transportation investment scale and the fastest development speed in the province.How does the traffic infrastructure affect the economic development of Sichuan Province is a problem to be studied in this paper.Meanwhile,"Hu Huanyong line" makes a very similar geographical economic layout between Sichuan province and the nation.So,whether the spillover effect of the traffic infrastructure is similar between both is also discussed.This paper introduces the mechanism of the spatial spillover effect of traffic infrastructure from theoretical aspect,constructs a measurement model,and carry out an empirical analysis based on the panel data of 21 cities in Sichuan province from 1998to2016.The result shows:the results of panel data analysis of Sichuan province indicate that the direct effect of traffic infrastructure is significant by 10% only under the SEM and all model estimates show that the spillover effect is not significant,which is not the same as theresults of national data analysis.Meanwhile,the results show that the direct effect of traffic infrastructure in Sichuan was negative in 1998-2007 and positive in 2008-2016,which may be related to the overall downward trend in traffic construction investment before 2008.The spatial spillover effect of traffic infrastructure was negative in 1997-2008 and not significant after 2008,which may be caused by the unbalance of economic development,special economic aggregation,a negative correlation between regional economic development in Sichuan province.At the end of the paper,it gives some suggestions on the development of traffic infrastructure in Sichuan province based on the main conclusions.