Analysis Of Cultivate Area Change And Influencing Factors In Lanzhou

In order to ensure the sustainable development of mankind,we must ensure that there is sufficient food supply and food production is not threatened.Therefore,ensuring the area of cultivated land is the top priority of the country's social development.As an industrial city in the Western region,Lanzhou City poses a direct challenge to the problem of grain production due to objective natural conditions.To ensure the sustainability of urban development,the analysis of Lanzhou's change in cultivated land area and the influence of cultivated land area change is the actual requirements which is based on Lanzhou's sustainable development strategy.The main advantage of Geographically Weighted Regression Model(GWR)is that it can better describe the characteristics of spatial differences.Therefore,according to this model,based on the county's research perspective,using SPSS19.0,ARCGIS12.0 and other software for data analysis,model calculation,we can get more accurate spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land area in Lanzhou City.Through the establishment of the GWR model,the variation trend of cultivated land area and the influencing factors in different counties and districts are obtained to better analyze and understand the process of land area change in Lanzhou and provide better theoretical support for the protection of cultivated land in each district and county.This paper discusses the spatial difference in the area of arable land between counties in Lanzhou City from the changes in quantity,space and structure of arable land area in various counties and districts of Lanzhou City,and the degree of change in arable land,and the structural change index;and analyzes the arable land area through the GWR model.The influencing factors of the change and the evolutionary rules of the influence of the influencing factors in space have reached the following conclusions:(1)There is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of cultivated land area in Lanzhou City.From 2005 to 2015,the total amount of cultivated land showed a declining trend,and there was a big difference in the reduction rate among counties and counties;the main city was the fastest,but Yuzhong County and Yongdeng.There is a slight increase in counties to bring about the balance of the cultivated land in Lanzhou.(2)The factors influencing the reduction of cultivated land area in Lanzhou include economic factors,population factors,industrial structure,technical conditions,and people's living standards.(3)The dominant factors influencing the change of cultivated land area in Lanzhou are very different in space.The population factor and GDP have a negative correlation with the area of cultivated land,and the value of the regression coefficient increases between 2005 and 2015;the industrial structure,grain yield,and arable land area.The change is positively correlated,and the value of the regression coefficient increases from 2005 to 2015.(4)Through the analysis of the changes of cultivated land area in Lanzhou City,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The quantity,space,structure,etc.of cultivated land area in Lanzhou have a dynamic evolution rule in time.It can be seen from the results of principal component analysis that in a short time,The driving forces affecting the change of cultivated land area in Lanzhou are still dominated by social and economic factors;(2)The spatial-temporal differences of factors affecting the change of cultivated land,using the GWR model of spatial analysis tools in ARCGIS software,were total social investment,industrial structure,urbanization.The correlation coefficient between the four dominant driving factors of grain yield,and the regression coefficient graph is generated to reflect the influence degree of each dominant factor in different regions.The optimization and upgrading of the industry promotes the transformation of cultivated land,and the areas with higher sensitivity are promoting economic development,we must pay more attention to the dynamic changes in the cultivated land area,and due to the decline in the quality of cultivated land,we still need to increase the area of cultivated land to increase grain production.