Spatial-temporal Variation And Driving Factors Of Cultivated Land Based On GWR Model

Cultivated land is the resource both valuable and special, which humans’dress and food are both depend on, and is very important to human survival and development. However, with the economic development and the increase of population, the cultivated land per capita is decreased sharply in our country. The cultivated land has already been in short supply, and the change of cultivated land resources has also been noticed by researchers all over the world.As the core region of Hubei Province as well as the focus area of the whole central China, Wuhan urban agglomeration which is at the stage of the middle industrialization at present with dense population and industrial concentration in this region. It is urgent to adjust land resources and protect cultivated land. However, the urban agglomeration’s region complex causes cultivated land use more special and complicated. So from the level of county to analyse region’s cultivated land use change and its driving mechanism of the region will provide different guidance for the effective management and protection policy of cultivated land resources to different counties, and most importantly, give suggestions for other similar regions.The result of GWR model (Geographically Weighted Regression Model, GWR model in short) can explain spatial differences better than the ordinary regression model. So this article applied the GWR model to predict cultivated land and study the driving factors’ spatial change of cultivated land use from the level of county, in order to understand the change process and mechanism of cultivated land use of counties in Wuhan urban agglomeration, which will give theory suggestions to cultivated land protection for counties. Based the software of ArcGIS9.3and SPSS17.0to deal with data format conversion and regression modeling and GWR approach as main research method, this paper reveals further analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of cultivated land use of the whole region.Firstly, the article tells the basic concept, content and methods about cultivated land use change, and describes the fundamental theories like sustainable use theory. Secondly, it analyzes spatial-temporal changes of cultivated land use in Wuhan urban agglomeration by using qualitative and quantitative methods. On this basis, the paper predicts the trend of cultivated land use change using GWR predicting model. After that, on the basis of theory and analysis, this paper mainly analyzes the socio-economic driving forces which affect the evolution of land-use structure in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration using the principal components analysis method. Then, using geographically weighted regression model from space point on the level of counties to explore five main driving forces’ spatial change extent. Lastly, considering comprehensively the social and economic factors of land use change, the paper puts forward conclusions and related recommendations.