Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Capital Demand And Micro-effects Of Monetary Policy

The macroeconomic environment is the basis for the operation and development of enterprises.At present,the economic development of our country has entered into a new normal situation,the uncertainty in the domestic macroeconomic environment has increased substantially.As one of the important means of macroeconomic regulation and control,the effectiveness of monetary policy has received more and more attention.In recent years,the relationship between M2 and GDP in our country has obviously weakened,both the output effect and the price effect of monetary policy occurred a marked decline.Some expansionary monetary policies did not achieve the desired result in actual application.Microscopically,when the macroeconomic uncertainty is high,due to the existence of preventive motivations,enterprises will increase their demand for liquidity and thus reduce their long-term investment demand thereby reducing their investment,at this time the implement of the regulation to increase the liquidity of commercial banks or to increase the currency supply will be of no use,which means the effect of expansionary monetary policies will be limited.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact that macroeconomic uncertainty will have on the effects of monetary policy through the channels of corporate capital demand.We choose the date from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2015 of all listing companies in A-share market.The paper verifies the existence of capital demand channels and conducts an empirical study on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the effects of monetary policy through the channels of corporate capital demand.Besides,it divides the monetary policy into quantitative and price-based monetary policy and conducts researches respectively.Further,the paper explores the difference of company heterogeneity and economic cycles will make on the former influence.Finally,we draw the following conclusions:The channels of transmission of capital demand do exist.Under the condition of high macroeconomic uncertainty,the micro-effect of quantitative monetary policy will be significantly weakened by increasing liquidity needs of enterprises and reducing long-term capital needs.However,the price-based monetary policy is still effective.Besides,there is a heterogeneity in this mechanism of influence,in non-state-owned enterprises,larger enterprises and enterprises with lower long-term debt,the effect is more pronounced.It means state-owned enterprises are automatic stabilizers that can automatically mitigate high macroeconomic impacts.In addition,this mechanism also has the difference in economic cycle,which is more significant in economic downturn compared with economic upward.The conclusions and suggestions of this paper are as followings:First of all,price-based monetary policy tools are more powerful than the quantitative monetary policy instruments.As the marketization of interest rates,the financial institutions and financial markets are constantly improving,and the role of price-based monetary policy instruments should be given more play.Secondly,in the formulation and implementation of specific monetary policies,it is necessary to fully consider the heterogeneity at the micro level,government should increase support for non-state-owned enterprises,large-scale enterprises and enterprises with low long-term debt levels,ease their financing constraints and promote investment to cope with the risk of macroeconomic uncertainty.In the face of the downturn,the government should also actively implement the loose price-based monetary policy to reduce the agency costs of enterprises,to avoid company’s financing capacity being squeezed by the government’s financing policies,and to enhance the long-term investment demand of enterprises and guide enterprises to actively investment.