Monetary Policy Uncertainty,Bank Credit And The Dynamic Adjustment Of Enterprises' Capital Structure

After 2008,due to the financial crisis,the global economy was in a slump.In order to reverse the economic downturn,central banks in various countries have adopted a series of loose monetary policies to stimulate the economy,continuously innovate monetary policy tools,and adjust the intermediary targets of monetary policy to protect the real economy.The Chinese government has given full play to its "visible hand" role,actively cooperated with the country in expanding domestic demand,frequently adjusted the benchmark interest rate and reserve ratio,and started the "unconventional monetary policy" adjustment period.However,the uncertainty of the monetary authorities' actions may damage the economy,change the microcosmic production and operation environment,and then affect the investment and financing behavior and capital structure of the company.The corporate capital structure and its speed are key factors that determine a company's profitability and even its survivability.The formation and adjustment of capital structure will not only be affected by the characteristics of the company,but also be affected by macroeconomic policies,systems,and other factors.The uncertainty of monetary policy is also an important factor in the adjustment of corporate capital structure.The impact mechanism needs to be further explored.On the basis of sorting out relevant literature and constructing the theoretical assumption that the uncertainty of monetary policy will affect the speed of adjustment of corporate capital structure through bank credit,first this paper is based on the daily data of the 7-day weighted average interest rate for interbank pledged repurchases from 2000 to 2017,and adopts the Stochastic Volatility Model to measure China's monetary policy uncertainty index over the past decade,and analyzes the trend and causes of the fluctuation of China's monetary policy in conjunction with the specific implementation of monetary policy,then based on the annual data from 2000 to 2017,PVAR impulse response analysis was conducted on the mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty affecting corporate capital structure.Moreover,this article uses the data of annual reports of non-financial listed companies in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2000 to 2016 to empirically analyze the influence of the uncertainty of monetary policy on the pace of adjustment of the capital structure of micro-industrial enterprises according to the dynamic adjustment model of capital structure.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the measurement and analysis results of the monetary policy uncertainty index show that:since 2000,the volatility of China's monetary policy uncertainty has gradually increased,and the frequency and magnitude of the central bank's adjustment of monetary policy instruments is the main reason for the policy uncertainty of China's currency.Second,the PVAR impulse response analysis results show that the uncertainty of monetary policy positively affects the scale of bank credit,negatively affects the bank's credit interest rate,and then negatively affects the level of corporate capital structure.Third,the empirical analysis of the expanded capital structure dynamic adjustment model combined with causal steps shows that the uncertainty of monetary policy can negatively influence the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment through bank credit channels,which means the uncertainty of monetary policy will hinder corporate capital structure adjustment through bank credit channels.The possible innovations of this paper are:describing the fluctuation of the uncertainty of China's monetary policy;from the point of view of credit transmission of monetary policy,it looks at the influence of the uncertainty of monetary policy on the adjustment of the capital structure of micro-enterprises.The main drawbacks of this paper include:there may be some limitations to measure the uncertainty of monetary policy based on the measurement of interbank pledged bond repo rates.The inspection time for monetary policy uncertainty is short.