| The self-built index of macroeconomic uncertainty and financial risk are used in this paper,in which the diffusion index model and the random fluctuation model are used to calculate the macroeconomic uncertainty in C hina,and the financial pressure index method is used to calculate the systemic financial risk in China.Based on the internal principle of the previous monetary policy transmission mechanism,the corresponding intermediate variables were selected to study the monetary policy transmission channels and monetary policy effects in C hina under the macroeconomic uncertainty in the SVAR model.The main contributors to the transmission mechanism were judged based on standard of the extreme of the impulse response of monetary policy tools to transmission channels intermediate variables.The research shows that :(1)Tobin’s Q channel,consumption channel,bank capital channel and balance sheet channel are important channels in C hina’s monetary policy transmission mechanism;(2)In the interest rate channel,the impact of interest rate changes on the asset investment of enterprises decreases;(3)With the change of Banks’ profit concept,bank credit channels are gradually losing their effectiveness under the control of the central bank;(4)As for the exchange rate channel,China implements a floating stable exchange rate system,and its response to monetary policy is relatively low;(5)Among the important channels,consumption channels are more sensitive to monetary policy changes than other channels.This paper adopted the rolling estimate SVAR model to get the time-varying effect of monetary policy in our country,in which,our country’s monetary policy effects are progressive and slow decline over time that compared with the past although some ups and downs in the process of falling,the rolling of the impulse response function of output and prices are all show the same form that is in a downward trend on the whole,and financial risk is different.Economic uncertainty plays an obvious role in the macro economy.China’s macroeconomic uncertainty will restrain the interest rate channel of the investment channels,exchange rate channel,capital channel and balance sheet channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism,and have a greater inhibitory effect on quantitative too ls in some channels.However,Tobin’s Q channel,consumption channel and bank credit channel will not be restrained by economic uncertainty,and there is a positive promoting e ffect.Although Tobin’s Q channel will not be restrained by economic uncertainty,the rise of economic uncertainty also weakens the willingness of enterprises to invest.The economic uncertainty has a restraining effect on the implementation of C hina’s monetary policy in the mass.Moreover,economic uncertainty will affect the investment of enterprises because the interest rate channel and Tobin’s Q channel show the same results.Economic uncertainty reduces people’s response to price factors for consumption,in other words,household consumption attaches more importance to economic uncertainty compared with price factors.Similarly,the response of both credit channels and capital channels to economic uncertainty is particularly strong for commercial banks,the real estate index price used in the balance sheet,like the consumption,reflects the residents’ self-conscious behavior towards the macroeconomic uncertainty.In general,excessive economic uncertainty will aggravate residents’ response to the daily macro economy,which is not conducive to the stable operation of economic activities.This paper adds the goal of preventing financial risks with studying the effect of monetary policy,and the research shows that China’s monetary policy has certain promoting effect on financial risks,especially the quantitative monetary tool have greater promoting force.Among the effects of time-varying monetary policies,the recent financial risks will increase with the positive random impact of policy tools,which is of great practical value for stabilizing the downward economic situation in China.According to the above conclusions,this paper proposes some suggestions for the macro-control of monetary policy:(1)Government should pay attention to the fluctuation of the overall economy because of the restraining effect brought by economic uncertainty,and should intensify the implementation of monetary policy in the period of high economic uncertainty when conducting monetary policy regulation.In the process of monetary policy implementation,we more focus on enterprise investment and household consumption at the micro level than bank credit and capital channels.We can guide investment and consumption through non-traditional monetary policy tools,so as to better play the role o f monetary policy;(2)Economic uncertainty,as a more influential economic variable in the macro economy,should be paid more attention by the government.The economic uncertainty could basically from macroscopic to microcosmic from the conclusion of this paper,the government should come forward,guidance and explanation to the phenomenon when economic uncertainty is higher,so the economic activities of the participants can form reasonable expectations,and reduce the influence of economic uncertainty,and makes the operation of the whole economic activities can be more robust;(3)The government should steadily implement monetar y policy tools and strengthen the use of price tools in order to prevent systemic financial risks in view of the rising systemic financial risks in China.Economic uncertainty will promote the increase of financial risks.Based on the goal of preventing financial risks,the government can avoid excessive systemic financial risks by reducing financial risk. |
