Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Economic Growth

All along,macroeconomic uncertainty has attracted wide attention from all walks of life.Since the 2008 International Financial Crisis,the internal and external environment of China's development has been full of uncertainty.In terms of external environment,uncertainties such as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe,the referendum on Britain's withdrawal from Europe,and the trade frictions caused by the change of American leaders have frequently happened,which has put China's economic growth under considerable downward pressure.In terms of internal environment,China's economy has entered a new normal transformation from high-speed growth stage to high-quality growth stage.The deep-seated structural contradictions accumulated over a long period of time in economic and social development are very obvious.Institutional reform and structural reform are imminent.China's economy is facing greater macroeconomic uncertainty.Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the investment,consumption,import and export trade of a country,and is related to the stable development of the country.Therefore,discussing the measurement of macroeconomic uncertainty and its economic effects is not only a useful supplement to the theoretical research on measurement,effect and transmission mechanism of macroeconomic uncertainty.It also provides a theoretical reference for the effective formulation of relevant macro-policies such as risk prevention,which has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the definition of macroeconomic uncertainty,this paper measures China's macroeconomic uncertainty index,and then examines the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth from three perspectives:investment demand,consumption demand and trade demand.The contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Definition and measurement of macroeconomic uncertainty.By sorting out the economic theoretical basis of macroeconomic uncertainty,this paper argues that macroeconomic uncertainty is based on the perspective of economic subjects.The results of events can not be fully predicted,and there is no specific probability distribution.The uncertainty of a single economic index is the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value which is the unpredictable part.The measurement index of macroeconomic uncertainty can be realized by weighted average of the uncertainty of each economic index.On the basis of this definition,using the factor augmented vector autoregressive-stochastic volatility(FAVAR-SV)model of Jurado et al.(2015),156 macroeconomic and industrial indicators from 2002 to 2018 were used to measure macroeconomic uncertainty in China.The measurement results show that:(?)The fluctuation of the predicted values of the 1-12 uncertainty indices in the sample is basically the same,and the measurement results are stable.(?)The index can clearly identify economic fluctuations and shocks with a probability of less than 10%,and overcome the frequent fluctuations in existing measures.Two fluctuation ranges above 1.65 times standard deviation explain the international financial crisis in 2008 and the most difficult year for China's economic operation in 2015.(?)Further comparative analysis of the differences between macroeconomic uncertainty index,stock uncertainty index and economic policy uncertainty index shows that macroeconomic uncertainty index better reflects the common trend of unexpected fluctuations in the overall economy.Compared with macroeconomic uncertainty index,Stock uncertainty index fluctuates frequently.Economic policy uncertainty index has fuzziness in identifying major economic uncertainties.At the same time,the measurement result has a certain time lag.The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on China's investment demand.Firstly,the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment and the pulling effect of investment on economic growth are analyzed.Finally,the transmission path of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth is formed.Using the existing literature for reference and taking fixed assets investment as the explanatory variable,Using data from 30 provinces and municipalities from 2005 to 2017,this paper constructs a dynamic panel model,introducing macroeconomic uncertainty,industrial restructuring index and the interaction between them in the case of overcapacity.The results show that:(?)macroeconomic uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on investment.When macroeconomic uncertainty increases,the amount of investment will decrease.(?)In the case of overcapacity in the secondary industry,the industrial restructuring has periodically restrained the long-term investment in fixed assets dominated by the secondary industry.The "advanced" adjustment of the industrial structure is an important reason for China's economy to enter the stage of "structural deceleration".The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on consumer demand.Firstly,the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic uncertainty on consumption and the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth are analyzed.Finally,the transmission path of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth is formed.Since the per capita income of urban residents is obviously higher than that of rural residents for a long time,the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on consumption in China is analyzed from the perspective of per capita consumption of urban residents and rural residents respectively.Referring to the existing research,macroeconomic uncertainty index is introduced into the consumption theory model of permanent income,and the panel data of 30 provinces and municipalities from 2003 to 2018 are used for empirical analysis.The empirical results show that:(?)compared with rural residents,urban residents have stable jobs and certain economic foundation,believe in their ability and have optimistic attitude towards the future.Therefore,in the face of economic uncertainty,urban residents'Preventive Savings motivation is not strong,and the negative impact is not significant.(?)Rural residents have a weak economic foundation and a single savings structure.In the face of sudden economic fluctuations,rural residents are more sensitive and have a strong motivation for preventive savings.The fluctuation of macroeconomic uncertainty has a significant negative impact on the per capita consumption of rural residents.The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on import and export trade.Firstly,the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic uncertainty on import and export trade and the pulling effect of trade scale on economic growth are analyzed.Finally,the transmission path of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth is formed.Using the stochastic frontier-gravity model and panel data from 2005 to 2015,20 target countries were selected for empirical analysis.The results show that:(?)Macroeconomic uncertainty inhibits China's import and export trade,export trade and import trade.(?)Stock uncertainty index and economic policy uncertainty index were used to replace macroeconomic uncertainty index respectively to test the robustness,the regression results were stable,and the regression results were compared and analyzed.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:(?)In measurement,we should strengthen database construction,enrich multi-frequency and multi-category data,and provide data basis for macroeconomic uncertainty measurement based on large data.On this basis,a large data model is constructed to complete multi-dimensional and multi-level uncertainty measurement.(?)In terms of investment demand,the state should adopt timely and forceful macro-control policies to reduce economic shocks with significant impact and respond to emergencies in a timely manner so as to enhance investor confidence.It should also develop key core technologies of domestic enterprises,promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries,and gradually realize producer services and industrial development.The integration of manufacturing industry should speed up the elimination of backward production capacity,promote the process of industrial restructuring,and accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries,promote the mutual promotion of modern and traditional services,so as to realize the transformation to high-quality economic development.(?)In terms of consumption demand,the government should enhance the predictability of policies,improve the social security system,and ensure the income of rural residents,expand the consumption demand of rural markets,and strengthen and improve the agricultural risk management system.(?)In terms of import and export trade,the government and relevant departments should create a stable economic environment,reduce the level of macroeconomic uncertainty,strengthen the construction of transport infrastructure with trading countries,improve the level of transport facilitation,resist the "anti-globalization" trend of thought,actively participate in bilateral or multilateral dialogue and docking countries.International rules should be strengthened to coordinate international economic policies and jointly safeguard multilateral cooperation mechanisms.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(?)Innovation in the construction of multi-dimensional index data sets.Referring to Jurado et al.(2015)using diffusion index to measure macroeconomic uncertainty in China,but different from the monthly data selected by Jurado et al.(2015),this paper relies on the definition of macroeconomic uncertainty,chooses multi-frequency data,and adds fiscal indicators and industry indicators that can reflect policy aspects in data set construction.(?)The actual effect of macroeconomic uncertainty measurement method is verified by comparing measurement results.It compensates for the deficiencies of China's economic policy uncertainty index based on Baker's(2016)method in identifying major economic uncertainties and the time lag of measurement results.(?)From the perspective of aggregate demand,the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth is analyzed from the aspects of investment demand,consumption demand and trade scale.Based on China's basic national conditions,this paper firstly empirically analyses the restraining effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment,and combined with overcapacity,under the condition of industrial restructuring,provides a new perspective for the study of the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment.Secondly,the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on per capita consumption of the two groups is discussed from the perspective of urban residents and rural residents respectively.Finally,the paper empirically analyses the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the restraint of China's import and export trade.