| We learn from history that we do not learn from history. The Arctic Passage as Chinese One Belt And One Road strategy an important support and alternative, in attracted international attention in the context of economic, strategic significance, is important to the China. Currently, the Arctic Passage involves 70% of global international trade. With the post crisis era, the world economy is facing reshuffle.Can the Arctic Passage achieve the economic alliance of East Asia, Europe and North America, promote the formation of a new supermarket, and how the Arctic Passage change the international trade? These puzzles are to be studied.Based on the legal status of waterway navigation environment, safety issues may arised, economic, infrastructure and strategic power game involved reviewed the Arctic Passage, theoretical discussion of the Arctic Passage impacts on global trade is proposed. The Arctic Passage impacts on global trade by shorter distances generated by these countries near the Arctic Passage. The theoretical analysis of the impact of distance on the international trade has become the theoretical basis of this paper.Chapter 3 analyzes the mechanism of the Arctic Passage impacts on the global trade patterns. The Arctic Passage have an impact on global trade patterns from two aspects that reduces these channels which countries near the Arctic Passage use and squeezes non-Arctic countries’ trade. Shipping distances significantly affect the trade efficiency which will result in long-distance transport losses, resulting in a delay of trade, thus reduces the spot trade, making the potential of trade can not be fully realized. The Arctic Passage can significantly shorten the distance near the Arctic National Ocean trade routes, making the trading time is shortened, the goods can reach the destination in advance. And it can shorten the transaction cycle, thus shortening the micro-level corporate cash conversion cycle, which speeds up their liquidity speed, have a multiplier effect, to further promote trade efficiency. Countries near the Arctic can improve national trade efficiency by use the Arctic Passage whicn will be conducive to increased trade between these countries, resulting in non-Arctic countries’ trade is squeezed. The Arctic Passage impact on global trade patterns are also reflected in changes in demand for the shipping industry. The shipping industry is a derived demand of world trade which directly affected by the world trade.The next chapter analyzes the current world trade pattern by several aspects of the pattern of maritime trade, shipping supply analysis, shipping freight analysis and the ports development. In addition, mineral and hydrocarbon resources in the Arcticwill also impact the present international resource distribution, affecting the flow of international resources. The trade of the energy and resources is an important part of the international trade. Analysis of the distribution of the world’s resources impact on the future direction of resources that can better analyze the impact of Arctic Passage on international trade of oil and gas and other resources, so as to analyze its impact on the global trade pattern well.Based on the foregoing analysis of the theoretical model, this paper next empirically analyzes the specific impact of the Arctic Passage for the global trade patterns. Chapter 5 learn from Feyrer’s(2009) study of the change in distance between the eight years, which the Suez Canal colsed during the Six Day War, impact on the international trade. The article provide an innovative study of the effects of the Arctic Passage on the global trade pattern.Based on the theory analysis of the impact of distance on trade, empirical analysis of the distance effects on the global trade is given by Bayesian VAR and VECM model after the unit root test and conitegration test of the 1990-2013 total world trade, total trade in ton-kilometers, total trade in tons. The results show that the distance which represented by the global trade in ton-kilometers and tons has a significant negative effect on the global trade in the import and export model. And the negative effects are significant in terms of long-term or short-term. Chapter 6calculates the trade efficiency of China, Japan, Korea, Germany and the United States and their samples for 1995-2012 by using a time-varying stochastic frotier gravity model based on panel data. Then the potential trade of these counties in the model were calculated, the impact on the global trade pattern is analyzed.Combining the world’s resources and reserves distribution pattern of global trade patterns were analyzed. In the sample of countries shipping channel through the Arctic Passage has decreased in the country away from Shanghai, China to the country’s main trading partners through the Arctic Passage ports than via the Suez Canal, with an average saving 25.50%, compared via the Panama Canal, with an average saving 38.98%; Japan’s results are 25.11% and 31.34%. Korea’s results are26.45% and 38.02%.Germany’s results are 18.10% and 38.83%. For the United States,the waterway shipping distances between countries in East Asia, such China, Korea are shorten by using the Arctic Passage. But if you choose Los Angeles ocean waterways, the Arctic Passage has no advantage. From the Arctic Passage changing the Ocean trade distance, the United States is not even directly related to the interests.Calculation results show that import and export of China’s largest shipping frontier by using the Arctic Passage can increase 9.83 percent on average, the largest increase in total imports frontier average 17.38%, the largest increase total exports frontier average 6.11 percent. Japan’s results corresponding to 23.14%, 32.93%,20.61%, corresponding to the result of South Korea’s 30.26%, 22.08%, 18.16%,corresponding to the result for Germany 14.03%, 11.03%, 16.55%. In fact, the biggest growth in the forefront of trade growth potential depends largely on the current maximum frontier trade, and from the results, the forefront of China’s trade has been relatively large which resulting in an incremental compared small. As for the expansion of space by post, China’s results were 14.62 times, 29.95 times and 44.93 times, respectively, as a result of Japan’s 43.11 times, 22.92 times and 9.69 times;Korea results were 47.45 times and 87.02 times, 14.41 times; Germany’s results were1.12 times, 0.71 times and 2.18 times. German influence is minimal which implies that the impact on the entire European Union and even Europe will be small. Japan and South Korea will have much impact, especially in China’s export trade. Trade of China, Japan and South Korea increased will squeeze other countries’ trade.Finally, China’s Arctic strategy and recommendations are given, including strengthening cooperation with Arctic countries in particular with Russia to strengthen cooperation between the countries near the North Pole, timely adjusting the resource import structure, the corresponding increase research investment, increasing investment on shipbuilding, promoting quality of service in ports and other industries,adjusting the port hinterland, promoting the adjustment of industrial structure, and so on. |
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