The Study On The Spatial Economic Effect Of Arctic Routes To The Surround-arctic Nations

As the Arctic sea ice melts,the Arctic waterway is gradually opening,which will greatly shorten the maritime transportation distance between Asia,Europe and the Americas,and become the shortest route connecting the major trading markets in the world.This will inevitably change the dominant position of traditional routes,and have a huge impact on the world trade pattern,resulting in large economic linkage effect extent.The foreign trade of each country mainly relies on maritime transportation.The eight Surround-Arctic Nations,such as the United States,Russia,Canada,Finland,Sweden,Denmark,Norway and Iceland,will be the first beneficiaries after the Arctic route opened up.More convenient and safe maritime transport channel can not only increase their foreign economic and trade ties,but also have economic effect on neighboring countries because of the spatial effect.Therefore,taking the Arctic route as the research object,this paper quantifies the driving effect of its opening on the economy of the Surround-Arctic Nations.In order to achieve the goal of research,firstly this paper introduces the research background and significance,summarizes the research status of Arctic routes and spatial economic effects at home and abroad,and determines the content and framework of the study.Then this paper expatiates on the Arctic route,its development process and the expectation of navigation,and qualitatively analyzes the current trade development in the Surround-Arctic Nations from a macroscopic perspective.At the same time,this paper introduces two models to be used in the analysis of the spatial economic effects:stochastic frontier gravitation model and spatial econometric model,laying the theoretical foundation for the later.After that,this paper chooses the panel data of the top 10 trading partners in the Surround-Arctic Nations from 2000 to 2015,to study the export trade and total trade of the eight countries through the stochastic frontier gravitation model.And this paper separately estimates the foreign trade potential of the eight countries through the traditional route and the Arctic route,and confirm the positive impact of the Arctic route on the foreign trade potential of the eight countries by comparison.Finally,on the basis of the value-added of each country's export trade from early,introducing the spatial weighted matrix,this paper establish the analysis models of spatial economic effect based on the 2015 cross-sectional data,to analyze the economic growth brought by the value-added of each country's export trade resulting from Arctic route.The results show that the economic upgrading of the Surround-Arctic Nations is not only positively related to the value-added of each country's export trade by the opening of the Arctic route,but also influenced by the spillover effect of the Arctic location.This paper focuses on the spatial economic effect of the Arctic route,and to a certain extent,provides an effective reference for the Surround-Arctic Nations to evaluate the role of the Arctic route in promoting economy and trade.