The Impact Of Consumer Credit And Its Term Structure On Economic Growth Of Our Country

Since the reform and open policy,our country executes "export-oriented" mode of economic growth,economic rapid growth for a long time,as the U.S.financial crisis caused by the international economic downturn,China's export trade has suffered a severe shock,external demand pull lost momentum of economic growth.As one of the "troika" of economic growth of the consumer,the height of the academic circle and practical departments attention again.Since 2013,18 since the third plenary session,to expand domestic demand a long-term mechanism,promoting economic growth as one of the main goals.In 2017 the government work report also proposed to further release domestic demand potential consumer credit products,encourage financial institutions to innovation,promoting consumption upgrading,enhancing the lasting pull domestic demand to economic growth.For this reason,this article from two aspects of theory and empirical study of consumer credit and its term structure of economic growth effect.On the basis of carding literature,this paper discusses the characteristics and differences between different period of consumer credit,and their effect on the economic factors of internal mechanism.Especially,the paper analyzes the consumption credit,consumption and investment on economic growth,etc.The influence mechanism of macroeconomic variables.In order to verify the theoretical analysis,the conclusion of practical rationality according to the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2016 sample data,the VAR model is set up respectively on the different period the macroeconomic effect of consumer credit has carried on the empirical analysis and comparison.Empirical analysis found that(1)short-term consumer credit and consumer credit has positive influence on consumption for a long time,and this is a long-term effect,especially in consumer credit,and consumption of different period have different causal relations,consumer credit analysis of short-term and long-term consumption credit can stimulate domestic demand;(2)short-term long-term consumer credit and consumer credit have a long-term positive impact on investment,in theory,producers can because of the existence of consumer credit to accelerate money collecting and investment reproduced investment;(3)short-term credit,and long-term consumption credit has inhibitory effect on the price level;(4)consumer credit whether short-term or long-term consumer credit,has positive effect on the macroeconomic growth.Due to the different period of consumer credit on economic growth,price level and the effect of consumption,investment,combined with the consumer credit market development status in our country at present,from two aspects of macro economy and micro individual advice corresponding policy and behavior choice,the government should speed up the set up perfect laws and regulations,strengthen market supervision,to promote social security reform and rapid development of consumer credit,free,provide environmental protection,according to the different economic development stage of term structure of different consumer credit policy,guide the consumer credit to play a good role in promoting economic growth.Micro individual aspects,financial institutions to strengthen innovation and product structure adjustment,to meet the market development,consumers need to change the traditional consumption concept,to adapt to The Times development,the pursuit of personal life quality promotion,reasonable use a different term structure of consumer credit.