Study On The Economic Growth Effect Of Bank Credit Term Structure In China

The relationship between bank credit and economic growth has always been an important focus of economists.China's financial system is also dominated by indirect financing.Bank credit funds are not only an important source of funds for the development of the real economy,but also an important part of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control.Therefore,the study of the relationship between bank credit and economic growth has important practical significance.At present,China's economic development has entered a new normal,and economic growth has begun to enter the stage of structural adjustment.Therefore,it is more important to study the relationship between China's bank credit and economic growth based on a structural perspective.With the continuous development of China's economic scale and quality,bank credits of different durations have also been changing along with the focus of economic development.As a result,the term structure of China's bank credit has also undergone significant changes.The term structure of the credit funds does not only cover macroeconomic development information,but also includes the common choices of micro-subjects and financial institutions.Therefore,whether the credit term structure is reasonable or not will have a direct impact on the development of the macro economy.On the basis of theoretical analysis and research design,this paper uses data from China's 31 provinces and cities for a total of 22 years from 1994 to 2015 to empirically study the effects of different periods of bank credit and the resulting credit term structure on economic growth.First of all,this paper uses the research results and theories both at home and abroad as a starting point to apply the logical analysis method and mathematical analysis method to analyze the theoretical framework of bank credit term structure and economic growth,including the definition of related concepts,the formation mechanism of credit term structure and the mechanism of the influence of the term structure on economic growth;Secondly,a descriptive analysis of short-term loans,medium and long-term loans,and the resulting credit term structure and macroeconomic growth variables were conducted,and the role of credit term structure for economic growth was initially examined from the total and structural.Then,in empirical analysis,this paper uses the ratio of medium and long-term loans to short-term loans as the credit term structure.On the one hand,using the dynamic panel model to test the overall impact of short-term loans and medium and long-term loans on economic growth in China,on the other hand,using the panel threshold model to structurally study the non-linear effect of China's bank credit term structure on economic growth;Finally,the conclusions of the full-text research are summarized,and corresponding policy suggestions are proposed for the problems found.The main conclusions of this paper including:(1)Theoretical research shows that short-term loans and medium and long-term loans have a positive effect on economic growth,and that the proportion between the two can only achieve optimal economic growth when they are at a desirable level.The desirable credit term structure is a necessary condition for the steady growth of the real economy.As China's current credit scale is still controlled to a certain extent,excessive short-term loans will lead to excessive social liquid funds and inflationary pressure on economic operation,and more medium and long-term loans will result in insufficient social liquid funds and will have an impact on current economic growth.(2)Empirical research shows that: First,short-term loans have a significant negative impact on economic growth,which is inconsistent with the theoretical analysis.This is because short-term loans mainly promote economic growth by meeting the liquidity requirements in the production and operation process of enterprises,but in reality,a large number of productive short-term loans are used in the “non-production” activities.Since productive short-term loans do not flow into the production process of enterprises,they are illegally flowed into the property market,the stock market,or are used by enterprises to repay the new loans.On the one hand,it is easy to create implied financial risks;on the other hand,it will affect the normal production and subsequent financing in the next phase of the enterprise,which has a negative impact on the economic growth.Second,the empirical results of medium and long-term loans found that medium and long-term loans have a significant positive impact on economic growth,and which has a certain lag effect.The main reason is that the medium and long-term loans are generally invested by enterprises in technological upgrading,investment in fixed assets,and investment in infrastructure projects,which affect the economic growth by affecting the increase in total factor productivity.It takes time to upgrade technology,and thus the impact of the medium and long-term loans on economic growth reflects a significant lag effect.Third,the influence of bank credit term structure on economic growth has a significant nonlinear threshold effect,and there are significant differences in the impact of different thresholds on economic growth.This paper uses the ratio of medium and long-term loans to short-term loans to represent the credit term structure.The empirical results of the panel threshold model show that there is a significant double threshold effect on the impact of credit term structure on economic growth,and the first threshold is 0.3938,the second threshold is 2.3037.When the credit term structure is lower than 0.3938,the effect of the credit term structure on economic growth is significantly negative.At this time,the term structure of the credit is too short-term;when the credit term structure is greater than 0.3938 and less than the second threshold value 2.3037,the impact of the credit term structure on economic growth has changed from a negative value to a positive one.At this time,the credit term structure is mainly reflected in the trend of long term,and it began generate a positive effect on economic growth;when the credit term structure crosses the second threshold of 2.3037,the credit term structure appears to be too long.Although it still has a significant positive impact on economic growth,the impact on economic growth begins to gradually weaken.Therefore,the credit term structure that is too short-term or too long-term has a certain degree of negative impact on economic growth.Only when the credit term structure is at a desirable level can it promote the healthy development of the economy.Based on the above findings,the policy recommendations presented in this paper mainly including:(1)Strengthen short-term credit management and control and innovate personal consumer credit business;(2)Give play to the market-based role and increase the efficiency of medium-and long-term credit allocation;(3)Rationally adjust the structure of credit terms to meet the company's reasonable long-term and short-term credit needs,and promote the healthy development of the real economy.The novelty of this paper is to not limit the credit term structure to the simple classification of short-term loans and medium and long-term loans,but to take into account the proportional structure of the two,and to supplement the existing research for the study of the nonlinear relationship between the credit structure and economic growth.