| Since Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations" has been published Economics has experienced more than 200 years of development, and has made great progress, but there are many economic problems need economists to explore ,such as the income distribution gap, the economic low level balance encountered in developing countries in the restructuring, and the international polarization with the economic globalization, the cyclical economic fluctuations in the developed countries.To the China having been experiencing 30 years of rapid growth since Reform and Opening, there are many problems need to have a scientific theory of economic growth as the guiding principle ,such as how to deal with international trade and globalization, how to deal with the problem of industrial structure, how to deal with the "three rural" issue, how to deal with the employment and enhancing the international competitiveness of products and so on.This paper is divided into seven chapters. First is the Introduction; Chapter 1 is the literature review; the chapters 2 and 3 are the parts of theoretical model; the chapters 4, 5 and 6 are to test the theory of this paper with a number of economic growth facts after "World War II" (case involving the former Soviet Union, Latin American countries, Japan, the United States, and China); Chapter 7 is to analyse China's industrialization with the theory of this paper as a guide.In the introduction, the author gives a briefing on the significance of topics and research background, the basic ideas and chapter structure, methodology and the basic assumptions used, and the innovations of this paper.In the chapter 1, the author comments the main economic growth and development theories since physiocracy, and combes the sequence of idea of the existing economic growth and development theories, pointing out the reasonable contents and the inadequate of it, found the breakthrough point and the entry point for constructing the long-term economic growth model in the text after.Overall, the economic growth and development theories have been launched along the following three clues and two aspects.The three clues are as following. The first is to constantly put new capital concept to explain the economic growth: physical capital, monetary capital, human capital, and knowledge capital and social capital.The second is to construct the economic growth theory and to supply policy recommendations on the border of the government and the market: Classical theory, Keynesian, neo-classical theory, the new Keynesian.The third is to build the economic growth and development theory on the controversy that which of a long-term growth and a short-term stability is more important: Long-term growth, short-term stability, sustainable development.The two aspects are as followting: one is constantly explore whether there are new factors which affect economic growth, and the other is to explore the intrinsic logic that the factors affect economic growth. However, so far, the theories of economic growth and development focusing on the former aspect are more, and the theories of economic growth focusing on the after are less.Chapter 2 and 3 are the theory parts of this paper. This theory is divided into two parts that are the long-term economic growth model and the negotiation force - income distribution– government model.The long-term economic growth model holds that :(1)In addition to historical conditions can not be changed, all the resources have the attributes of social resources from the dynamic perspective. (2)Among all factors impacting the long-term economic growth, the institution is the most subjective factor, which influences the micro-economic behaviors through income distribution structure, thus affecting the macro-economic performance. (3)The income distribution structure not only affects the social supply, but also impact social demand, which takes as the role of a tie or lever in the long-term economic growth. The negotiation force - income distribution– government model holds that:(1)The income distribution ratio of social wealth is decided by the negotiation forces of interest parties , which including market forces and non-market forces that interact each other.(2)The income distribution gap is due to the negotiation gap between the different interest parties, its change has stickiness that decides the macroeconomic market does not automatically clear.(3) The government can be divided into the type of bullying the weak and the type of helping the weak, the former is not conducive to long-term economic growth, the latter is conducive long-term economic growth. (4)The negotiation gap between the different interest parties is smaller only while the democracy and the legality can become dominant, and only on the basis of which the government may become the government helping the weak(.5)For every social elite who attempts to promote the nation's long-term prosperity, it is essential to commit to construct the social structure that market forces as well as non-market forces are symmetry. (6) For any economy that negotiation force structure is polarization, the long-term economic growth is impossible.Chapter 4 is to explain the economic growth of the former Soviet Union under the planned economic system with the NPG model. The author thinks: (1)The reason that the former Soviet Union economy has been able to grow rapidly is its larger integration coefficient that is caused by the high degree of centralization of power, which is shown for the very asymmetric structure of the negotiation force and the property arrangements, as well as its possession of rich natural resources.(2)What eventually led to its collapse is also the very asymmetric structure of the negotiation force and the property arrangements, that is, a unified public property, which led to the allocation of the production factors inefficient.(3) Perhaps, the most important and direct cause of the former Soviet Union disintegration is that the basic livelihood of the people can not be guaranteed and the level of benefits have not been sustainable, and the profound reason is the asymmetric structure of the negotiation force. Chapter 5 is to explain the facts of economic growth of the Latin American countries, Japan and the United States under the market economy mechanism. Author thinks: In the 20th century, the unsustainable economic growth of Latin American countries, and the economic miracle of Japan after"World War II", the Great Depression and the stagnation of the United States can be explained most by the symmetrical structure of negotiation force. The more symmetrical structure of negotiation force was one of the decisive conditions for the economic miracle of Japan, and the asymmetrical structure of negotiation force was one of the decisive conditions for the economic recession of Latin American countries and the United States.Chapter 6 is to explain the economic growth of China under transition period. The author thinks that: under transition period China's economy has showed the characteristics that are a high growth, and a low utilization coefficient of resources, a larger gap of income distribution, and a high degree dependence on foreign trade and investment. In the transiting China, the greater income gap has made effective consumer demand inadequate, leading to lack of private investment, and dependence of economy on government-led investment and exports, and the government-led investment has made it is difficult to guarantee for efficient using resources. And the lack of domestic resources led to the dependence of economy on imports. Contemporary Chinese peasants'relative low level of income are because of their lower negotiation forces, of which the main reason is the lower non-market forces, which further weakening of the peasants negotiations forces. In the transition process, if we do not promote the negotiation force structure symmetric between the interest groups in a economy, then the inevitable results are that there is a larger income distribution gap that also is more difficult to change, and its economic growth will be ultimately put into the plight of effective demand insufficient and the serious international trade friction.Chapter 7 is to use the NPG model in analyzing of China's industrialization strategy. The author finds that: (1)industrialization strategic issues almost connects with all the major economic issues China facing; (2)a scientific industrialization strategy must be clear to achieve its objectives and means, and the means can achieve its goals, and the goals can not left to improve the people's welfare;(3)for China to achieve the industrialization of nation rising, the following means are necessary: to improve the initial structure of property rights of production factors, to improve income distribution structure, to identify of suitable and effective government functions and toward which to change, to improve public financial expenditure structure, to anti-monopoly, to improve the ability to access resources and so on; (4) the core means of which is to adjust the negotiation force structure between different interest groups, that is, to support the vulnerable groups and weaken the strong groups in domestic, further to promote democracy and legality ,and to enhance China's negotiation forces (from the economic, political, ideological and military, etc.) in the international community.The main innovations of this paper are as following:First, a long-term economic growth model is built in this paper from the two sides of the supply and the demand, integrating of the points of view of Keynesian economics and the new classical economics.Second, this paper introduces institution into the long-term economic growth model with the concept of integration coefficient of production factors.Third, the NPG model of this paper is constructed with the link of the income distribution, stressing to understand the economy's performance from the perspective of the negotiation force structure.Fourth, the long-term economic growth theory, the price theory and the income distribution theory as well as the government theory are organically made together in this paper with the tool of negotiation forces.Fifth, the author annotated the concept of industrialization from the perspective of long-term economic growth.The limitations of this paper and follow-up study recommended are following:First, there are many factors not to be discussed in this paper ,such as values, customs, religion, culture, location, climate characteristics, etc. that impact on long-term economic growth .Second, the specific mechanism of the natural factors affecting the long-term economic growth has not been discussed in-depth in this paper.Thirdly, the optimal path of which China is to adjust the negotiation sructure between interest groups has not been studied in-depth in this paper.Fourth, because of the lack of data, this paper doesn't make quantitative research to the negotiation force.The above limitations and shortcomings of this paper need to perfect.
|
PDF Full Text Request