Improvement And Application Of Shift Share Model

In order to promote the healthy development of China's economy,accelerate the improvement of the socialist market economic system and speed up the transformation of economic development mode,the eighteen party put forward the strategy of promoting the strategic adjustment of economic structure.China economic development has entered a new norm,the mode of economic development is turning to quality from the scale and speed;economic structure is to adjust the stock from the incremental expansion,depth adjustment and increment simultaneously;economic development is shifting to a new growth point from the traditional point of growth.Jiangsu as a big economic province,its comprehensive economic strength has been in the forefront of the country,the results of economic development significantly,in 2016 the per capita GDP reached 95394 yuan,ranking the first China provinces,its economic transformation upgrade of the country plays a vanguard role.Now,in the regional economic planning in China,almost all as the main means of economic structure adjustment of industrial structure adjustment,at the same time,the regional government in the adjustment of industrial structure has been in a dominant position.The government in the development of economic planning is faced with these three questions:1 how to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of regional industrial structure.2 the competitive strength of each region.3 sources of economic growth.Only by solving the above three problems can we develop effective regional economic development strategy.The shift share model divides the growth of economic variables in a particular region into different parts,which is usually used to describe the regional economic growth over time or to measure the effect of regional policy.But the traditional model of shift share analysis of the regional economic growth has obvious shortcomings,the size and the competitive advantage of the industrial structure of the advantages of the region size did not separate clearly,the source of economic growth is not explained.In view of the problems existing in the traditional model,the author makes a systematic analysis of the domestic and foreign research on the shift share model and makes a corresponding improvement,and gives a detailed solution to the three problems mentioned above.At the same time,the economic growth of Jiangsu province for the share of decomposition,to increase the advantage of system analysis,draw the following conclusions:(1)compared with the national,Jiangsu Province industrial structure on economic growth has certain structural advantages,but growth mainly depends on the regional competitive advantage.(2)the regional competitive advantage of Jiangsu province mainly comes from the regional advantage of labor productivity growth,and there is no regional advantage in labor force growth.(3)the situation of each prefecture level city in Jiangsu province is different,or has the structure or the competitive advantage in the labor productivity growth,or has the structure or the competitive advantage in the labor force growth.Finally,based on the analysis of the economic results of Jiangsu Province,some policy suggestions are put forward.