An Empirical Study On The Relationship Of Industrial Structure Evolution And Economic Growth In China

After the nineteen Party of the party,general secretary Xi Jinping put forward the thought of "socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era",and the economic and social development of our country entered a new era.In new era,The relation between economic growth and the evolution of industrial structure in our country is also appeared some new characteristics:from 1992,our country fully implements the system of socialist market economy,China's economic development has made tremendous achievements,and industrial structure makes great change.Between 1992 and 2011,China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of about 10%,and its GDP grew from2719.45 billion in 1992 to 54036.74 billion in 2012.Evolution of industrial structure reflects in the rise of industrial share and becoming the biggest industry in China,the industrialization driving China's rapid economic development.But there is something changed.China's service sector's output proportion in 2012 exceeded the share of industry sector and became the biggest sector in economy for the first time.At the same time,after 2012,China's economic growth rate dropped to about 7 percent.Is there causality of the rising of service's share and economic growth downward,and service sector as the leading sector of economy whether promotes China's sustained economic growth or not.These problems has important theoretical and practical significance,and they are worthy us to explore.In academia,the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure has been discussed for a long time and the dual economic theory holds that with the development of more efficient industry,industrial sector wages gets higher,surplus agricultural population is transferred to the city's industrial departments,and industrialization drives economy grow rapidly.On the based of it,further research is going on.In recent years the research focuses on changes of industrial structure in the economic growth,but regardless of the impact of evolution of industrial structure especially the change of service's share to economic growth.In this paper,on the basis of predecessors' theory,first of all,we hackled the relationship between the evolution of industrial structure and economic growth andanalyzed the relationship in theory.And at the second argued that they promoted mutually.This article firstly analyse the two-way relationship of economic growth and industrial structure evolution through the VAR model empirically,and the conclusion is that there exists the granger causality.Secondly the result of the impulse response quantifies the relationship.Above-mentioned empirical study analyzed the general trend of relationship from1992 to 2015,but in each year the specific situation cannot be clear using the VAR model and due to the flow of productive factors among the three sectors,the general trend of relationship can't clearly show the relationship of the evolution of industrial structure featured on industry sector's expanding share and service sector's expanding share and economic growth.Then using the “share-shift” analysis,this paper analyses the impact of the evolution of industrial structure to economic growth in each year,and using the state space model,we analyses the impact of economic growth to the evolution of industrial structure each year.Then this article divides economy into two departments:agricultural and non-agricultural sector,service sector and the non-service sector,in order to clear the relationship of the two-kind of evolution of industrial structure and economic growth.Conclusion is that economic growth promotes the evolution of industrial structure feathered on the expanding industrial share,at the same time the evolution of industrial structure feathered on the expanding industrial share promotes the economic growth,but its role in promoting is weakening;economic growth has contributed to the evolution of the industrial structure feathered on the expanding service sector,while the evolution of the industrial structure feathered on the expanding service sector has promoted economic growth,but its role has been weakening.In the process of the evolution of the industrial structure feathered on the expanding service sector promoting economic growth,the different factors of service sector plays different role,as a result of that the industrial technology and labor productivity progress is forced to flow into the service sector reflects in the cost of disease and capital is attracted by the service industry reflecting in capital flows promoting the improvement of China's total factor productivity in service industry,promoting the economic growth.The innovation of this article is revealing the relationship of the evolution of industrial structure featured on industry sector's expanding share and service sector's expanding share and economic growth by dividing economy into two departments;at the same time,we analyses the relationship of the evolution of industrial structure featured on service sector's expanding share and economic growth,from capital and labor's aspects,and finds that the labor's flow to the service sector,especially the consumer services reflecting in the cost of expanding disease and capital's flow to productive service industry promoting the improvement of China's total factor productivity.This paper suggests:the strategy of industrialization should be shifted to improve the quality and structure,transforming traditional industries and promote the integration of industry and service industry.At the same time we should vigorously develop the productive service sector.