Study On The Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Of Construction Industry In Anhui Province

As an important material production sector,the construction industry plays an important role in the quality of people's life,in the promotion of social employment,as well as in the prosperity and development of the whole national economy.Besides,it will also have positive impacts on the production departments or industries which have close correlation with it.In recent years,the overall growth rate of China's macro economy has slowed down,and the construction industry,which is closely related to the national economy,has encountered new opportunities and challenges in the meanwhile.It is difficult to meet the current development requirements with the development mode driven by low cost factors,and the construction industry urgently needs to be restructured so as to adapt to the new development mode.Technological innovation will be the driving force for the development of the construction industry,and actively realize the transformation from the old ways of production factors and capital investment to the innovation-driven way is a necessary requirement to comply with the development of the times.We should correctly grasp the characteristics of the new normal in the construction industry,actively respond to it and adapt to it,so as to achieve a new balance system between the scale and quality,speed and efficiency,growth and transformation in the construction industry.To begin with,this paper makes a brief description of the background,the purpose,significance as well as the specific research contents,ideas and methods used during the research;then summarizes some of the related achievements on factors affecting the development of the construction industry by scholars at home and abroad.Based on the analysis of the development situation and the discussion of the the relevant factors that have important influence on the construction industry in Anhui province,a comprehensive evaluation index system is eventually established.Soon afterwards,the current situation of Anhui construction industry and the development level of local cities throughout the province are evaluated by cluster analysis.Based on factor analysis,a few comprehensive evaluation factors are obtained and used to analyze the ranking of comprehensive factors in Anhui province.Then it analyzes and evaluates the specific situation and problems of Anhui construction industry from the perspective of horizontal and vertical angles,and finds out the advantages and disadvantages of its development.By collecting the historical statistical data of construction during 2006-2015,on the basis of econometrics,alinear regression model is introduced to predict the construction output in Anhui province.Correspondingly,the Grey prediction model is then used to forecast the output value of the construction industry.By comparing the results with the results of linear regression analysis,and combining the current national macro policies,we can reveal the future trend of the construction industry.In the last part of this article,combined with the content of this study and related conclusions,some suggestions on the reform and development of the construction industry in Anhui province are given from both the perspective of enterprises and government.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: on the one hand,the construction industry in Anhui province has achieved better results in recent years,but there is still a giant gap compared with the provinces with strong comprehensive strength.The overall development scale of the construction industry is not so impressive and the growth rate is generally modest,both the technical factors and production efficiency are far from satisfactory;on the other hand,the innovation consciousness and corresponding ability of enterprise need to be improved badly,and the overall competitiveness of the industry needs to be promoted identically.Last but not the least,much attention shall be paid to the coordinated development by the government authorities so as to alleviate the inequality of development in cities and regions throughout the whole province.The above research has certain guiding significance for accelerating the reform,development as well as the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry,in addition,it provides some necessary reference for the development of the industry.In the meantime,it also sums up some of the rules and disciplines in the development process of the construction industry,which has enriched the related theories and methods of the development in the construction industry.