| The common development rule between the city and the corresponding port is that coastal areas are always the first to become economically developed regions,and they are interrelated and interact on each other.Thus,it is important for the city and the port to excavate the interactive relationship and achieve the virtuous interaction of the port-city system.System Dynamics(SD)model is actually the simplification and abstraction of the real world under certain conditions,and it is hard to avoid that there are some ideality hypothesis.Therefore,the test for the reliability and validation of the SD model is an important step.The historical test method,which is widely used,is an important method in all test methods.However,there are some errors and it causes that the errors in the simulated results are not noticed,and the corresponding conclusions and suggestions are not convincing.Thus,the further study for the historical test method of the SD model is significant for the application of the SD model.Firstly,based on the some studies about the interactive relationship between city and port,the dynamic mechanism is analyzed.The SD method is uses to analyze the causal relationship among the subsystems in the port city system,and the SD model of the port city interaction is established.Secondly,the further study for the historical test method is conducted,and the problem existed in the method application is summarized.Based on the model structure and the information transfer situation,we analyze the reason why there are errors and establish a series of new concepts,such as the constraint variable,the constrained variable.The method is also provided to solve the existing problems.Finally,the port-city system of Q is selected as the object of study,and the proposed method in this paper is used to conduct historical test for the established model.The model is also used to conduct a lot of scenario simulations,and the related suggestions are also provided based on the simulated results. |
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