Employment Analysis And Development Prediction Of Migrant Workers In China

Migrant workers are a special group formed by the transfer of surplus agricultural labor force under the dual urban-rural economic structure in China.Adequate supply of migrant workers meets the huge demand for non-agricultural industries in China and provides an important guarantee for the rapid development of non-agricultural industries in China.In recent years,the number and employment pattern of migrant workers in China have undergone major changes.In recent years,many provinces have experienced "migrant workers shortage" phenomenon.At present,with the country’s call and guidance,migrant workers have returned to the countryside.In this context,it is very necessary to study the status quo of employment transfer of migrant workers in China and analyze the changes in employment patterns.Therefore,this article takes migrant workers as the research object and conducts the following three aspects of research:(1)Analysis of the employment-related data of rural migrant workers in China from 2008 to 2016,and studies the development trend of migrant workers in the total,the distribution pattern of local and foreign employment,personal characteristics,income levels,industry distribution and the flow of migrant workers in different regions;(2)Based on the theory of dual economic structure and push-pull theory,analyze the factors affecting the generation and transfer of employment of migrant workers,and discuss the causality of these factors.Based on the relationship and quantity relationship,a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the generation and transfer of employment of migrant workers as a tool to predict the number of migrant workers;(3)According to the difference in the rate of urbanization of migrant workers and the growth rate of agricultural output Baseline scenarios,government target scenarios,and acceleration scenarios predict the trends in the total number of migrant workers in China and the patterns of local employment and employment in the different scenarios from 2017 to 2025.The results of the study show that the proportion of migrant workers in total employment in China has increased year by year in 2008-2016 and reached 36% in 2016.In the future,the total number of migrant workers in China will continue to grow,but the growth rate will decrease.This is in line with the weakening of the dual economic structure in China;migrant workers are the main migrant workers in China;in terms of personal characteristics,migrant workers in China are mainly men.The education level is mainly junior high school education,and the proportion of non-agricultural vocational skills training has been low.The proportion of middle-aged and older migrant workers has been continuously rising.The forecast of the number of migrant workers in different scenarios shows that the growth rate of migrant workers in all categories under the three scenarios will exceed 14% from 2017 to 2025,and the growth rate will reach 17.8% under accelerated scenarios;the number of migrant workers going out will be under three scenarios.The growth rate is very close.Under the acceleration scenario,the growth rate in 2017-2025 can reach 3.5%,and the growth rate is low.The local migrant workers grow faster than the migrant workers under the three scenarios,and the proportion of them is constantly increasing and accelerating.Under the scenario,it will reach 49.7% in 2025.Local migrant workers are expected to become the mainstay of migrant workers in the future.Accelerate agricultural development,increase the contribution of technology and mechanization to agricultural development;Accelerate the reform of the household registration system,increase the speed of urbanization of migrant workers;Give play to the absorption of migrant workers in the tertiary industry is an important measure to promote the transfer of employment of migrant workers.