Generating Project Risk Response Strategy Considering Causal Relationships

Risk management is an important work in project management.In contrast to risk identification and assessment,risk response is more critical to focus on.Risk is the end result caused by a series of interdependent factors,therefore,considering the causal relationships between risk factors is of great significance,not only for the early prediction,but also in taking effective risk control measures.Meanwhile,case analysis is suitable for construction field,considering its nature of weak theoretical but strong experience.However,although a large number of project risk management cases have been accumulated in construction field,yet has not the risk management knowledge derived from those cases been extracted and applied properly.Based on case reasoning,the thesis constructed a risk response strategy generation framework for mega construction projects considering risk propagation effect.A standardized expression form for risk management cases of mega construction projects was proposed.Through summarizing relevant literature,the project characteristics standardization index system was constructed including eight first-level indicators and 19 secondary indicators.A risk propagation path explaining risk source,risk event and risk consequence was built in the standardization process of risk characteristics.Risk source contained a total of 45 risk factors,which have been classified according to their oriented object(i.e.subject,object and environment),in order to facilitate risk classification and locating during case storage.The establishment of standardized knowledge representation laid a foundation for sharing and applying risk management knowledge in the database.Considering project and risk characteristics,the risk response algorithm based on case reasoning was constructed,according to the four steps of case retrieving,reusing,revising and retaining.Whereby,adding the process of screening the available historical cases before retrieving similar historical cases can enhance the efficiency and accuracy of case reasoning.Taking the risk management of subway project Line Y in T city as a case problem,the result showed that the proposed method can provide a better basis for project managers to predict incoming risk events and support them in decision-making process.The framework enriches the theoretical system of risk response,enhances the scientificalness and effectiveness of generating risk response strategies and provides a powerful tool for dynamic pre-warning of risk management in mega construction projects.