Fund Chain Risk Evaluation For Enterprise Based On Improved Case-Based Reasoning

Enterprise, one of the most important market players in the economic activities, does not only relate to the smooth operation itself, industry and regional development, and more relate to the social and economic stability of one country. In the fierce competitive environment, companies contiguously integrate the capital flow, logistics, information flow and other resources to maximize their enterprise value. In that, fund flow is the important factor to ensure the normal operation a smooth reproduction, which is the foundation of the other resources flow and the final destination of all the flow movement. Thus, all companies must focus on the business capital chain risk management.By analyzing the reason of large multi-national companies breaking down in the global economic crisis in2008, the main reason of enterprise risk tolerance weaker is that capital management has problems, such as enterprise inability to correctly predict the risk of capital chain, over the capital operation multiplying capital chain risk, internal financial control mechanism not perfect and so on. These problems have become the chief causes of enterprise fund chain risk non-security operation and lead to business crisis ultimately. Starting from these reasons of causing enterprise fund chain risk and different type of these reasons, the capital chain risk can be divided into six sections, including "inventory increase type" capital chain risk,"value bubble type" capital chain risk,’capital operation type" capital chain risk,"agent financial type" capital chain risk,"capital guarantee type" capital chain risk,"related transaction type" capital chain risk. Based on the risk characteristics of different type capital chain risk and the relationship between the level of risk and attributes of risk types, system analysis model combined Bayesian inference and Case Based Reasoning method has been established to regulate the integrated risk level by different precise factors. Finally the risk state will be described in kinds of condition. Meanwhile, based on the integrated system and basic models about risk factors, the sensitivity of different risk factors will be indented. Through above models, the (few) types of capital chain risk in the economic activity more frequently occurring will be found out, which process will provide much useful information for enterprise to predict, control and after evaluation enterprise capital chain risk. It is has significant effect to enhance the efficiency of enterprise risk management and provide the decision-making basis.