Analysis Of China's Export Potentiality To The Countries Along "One Belt And One Road"

To respond to the challenges due to the adverse external environment for economic development resulted in the slow recovery and serious imbalance of global economic in the post-financial crisis era,to deal with the problems generated by the lack of motivation for internal economic growth caused by excess capacity and foreign exchange accumulation and sluggish domestic market demand after 30 years of extensive development since reform and open,the Chinese government has creatively put forward the strategy of One Belt and One Road.This strategy combines the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation and common prosperity of the world organically and becomes the effective paths of strengthening contact among countries along the route,maintaining geopolitical stability and promoting economy development healthy.But there is no existing or fixed paradigm for the implementation of One Belt and One Road,so the in-depth study on it has far-reaching theoretical and practical significance.This thesis analyzes the influence factors and their influence of China's export trade to these countries and researches China's export trade potentiality to them using gravity model based on the panel data of economy and trade between China and the 81 countries for 24 years.This thesis finds that the economic aggregate,population size,geography feature and the trade agreement of the countries along the route impact their trade cooperation with China through different ways and with varying degrees.According to the fitting results of the gravity model,this thesis calculates the export potential of China to the 81 countries along One Belt and One Road,the results show:1)The countries in EU with largereconomic volume and better development level and the energy countries in western European are the important trade partners of China,there are further room for growth of bilateral trade between them;2)China's exports to the southeast Asia countries are serious excess,but the trade relations of China and them will be deepen further because of the geographical advantages;3)The countries along the Land Silk Road have greatoverall potentiality,strengthening the construction of logistics infrastructure and economywill promote China's exportsto countriesalong One Belt and One Roadprominently.This thesis combines contrast research with gravity model,in order to avoid the risk of covering trade differences of China and countries in different areas produced by fitting whole samples,the thesis distinguishes sample countries further and conducts multiple comparison analysis according to the logical relations of total sample-points sample,points sample-points sample,then targeted research on the trade cooperation differences and potentiality between China and countries belonging to EU,along Maritime Silk Road and the Land Silk Road are conducted.On the other hand,this thesis uses time series smoothing piecewise to describe time effect directly and analyzes panel data with gravity model to reflect dynamic effect ability over time of explanatory variables to variables being explained.In the end,the strategic layout patternsof "front port-middle district-rear city" and the economic developmentstrategy of "point with line,line with surface" are proposedon the basis of in-depth analysis of the results of the study.The suggestions putted forward by this thesis have important reference significance for the successfulimplementation of One Belt and One Road strategy.