Study On The Effectiveness Of Urban Housing Purchase Policy By Regression Discontinuity Design

Nowadays,the real estate market has been a barometer of a national economic development.Since 1998,with Chinese goverment officially opening the real estate market,the development of the real estate industry has been in the twists and turns ahead.In order to maintain the stability of the real estate market,the national government put forward many policys.Meanwhile,as the gathering part of regional enconomic development,the National Central Cities’ real eatate development has a great important on regional stability.Therefore,it is necessary to study the real estate policy of the national central city,and only the correct real estate market regulation and control behavior can maintain the healthy development of our economy.The study is about purchase policy effectiveness research by Regerssion Discontinuity Analysis.Firstly,through the research on real estate prices,policy and policy analysis tools,the feasibility and signification were put forward.Secondly,the concepts of Purchase policy and the National Central City were defined,and the theory on supply and demand in the real estate market and government intervention were explained.Thirdly,the policy of the development of China’s real estate industry were reviewed,and it is make a detail analysis on the two purchase policy and a purchase policy withdrawal behavior during the period of policy control duration.Then,the study construct the regerssion discontinuity analysis model of real estate purchase and purchase withdrawal.Last,the data of the required variables are collected and sorted out.The empirical analysis of the selected cities is carried out to calculate the validity of the purchase and purchase of ten sample cities.the conclusions of the study were as follows:(1)The Regerssion Discontinuity Analysis model has a good applicability to the purchase policy and exit effect verification of the National Central City.In the validity period of the model,most cities have passed the robustness test of regerssion discontinuity analysis.(2)During 2010 to 2011,purchurse policy of China has different results on all cities,Based on new commercial and second-hand house evaluation index as the two evaluation effect of the dimension,10 central cities will appear four types,respectively,1)policy effect is not significant,2)a second-hand housing are positive effects,3)both negative impact and 4)the two affected by the direction of inconsistency.(3)During 2014,purchurse policy withdrawel of China did not make the majority of urban housing prices retaliatory rise in the short term.This study also put forward some policy-making measures aimed at advising the government and the market to carry out efficient and effective policy control.Through the study of the effectiveness of the purchase policy and its withdrawal,the effect of all cities’ purchase policy were obtained.This study has important guiding effect on the development of the purchase policy in cities,which is of great significance to maintain the stability of the real estate market and promote the healthy development of the tertiary industry and the overall economy.