Is It Reasonable For The Termination Of Restriction Policy Of House Purchase?

Affected by the financial crisis of 2008, global economic doldrums also had a serious impact on the real estate market of China and the real estate market appeared signs of weakness. As the real estate industry is a pillar industry of China’s economic development, in order to promote the growth of local economic, the local governments frequently introduced measures to rescue the real estate market. To the beginning of 2010, with the recovery of global economic, a mass of idle funds investment in the real estate which leads to the fact that the housing prices soared. After that, the government promulgated a series of restriction and limited credit policy. But it is strangely that despite the frequent regulation of real estate issued by the government, the housing prices kept growing. However, in recent two years the government has not issued policies which can suppress the real estate, the housing prices has started to return to the normal level under the trend of stabilizing growth. The growth of economic in China slowed down and the house prices began to drop off since 2014. From the beginning of June in this year, some cities quitted "House purchase quota policy" in succession, which declared the ending of the restrictions which implemented for more than 3 years.In this background, with the combination of the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this article studied validity of the "House purchase quota policy "and the "Limit credit policy" by building LSDVC model and subdivided the policies into six aspects.This paper was divided into seven parts. The first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of topics; the second chapter summarizes the literature review on the field of the real estate regulation from two aspects; the third chapter describes the history of the development of China’s real estate market and China’s real estate regulation policy since 2004; the fourth chapter established the model of partial equilibrium with property buyers and developers on the basis of traffic model, and analyzed the market behavior of property buyers and developers under different assumptions separately, so as to explain the different impacts put by the different policy on the real estate price; the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter is the empirical analysis part. In these two chapters, This article selected monthly data of 29 cities in China from October 2008 to June 2014 to establish a dynamic panel model and used LSDVC method to analyze the validity of the "House purchase quota policy "and the "Limit credit policy" and regional heterogeneity. The empirical results show that:the credit limit restriction policy and policy limit ratio is ineffective; the credit policy is significant effective but have regional heterogeneity; the growth of house prices have obviously lag effects and the expectation Is conducive to the increases of housing price; the gap is too large to promote the soaring prices. In other words, the existing of the limiting policy was rise in the present stage. The "House purchase quota policy "and the limiting of down payment ratio was invalid. Prices were mainly affected by the supplying and demanding. Individual mortgage rates and the credit scale were regional heterogeneity in price control. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestions. In view of the above phenomenon, this paper puts forward four policy suggestions:improving the regulatory measures and enhancing the efficiency of the purchase of the policy; improving personal mortgage interest rates of the developed areas; to strengthen the construction of low-income housing and guide the reasonable rational expectations; adjusting the industrial structure and make a reasonable distribution of income.