An Analysis Of The Regional Differences In The Impact Of Purchase Restriction Policies On Real Estate Price

The real estate industry is a pillar industry in my country,and abnormal fluctuations in real estate prices will have a significant impact on my country’s economic and social stability.From 2014 to 2015,due to the previous overdevelopment of real estate,resulting in excessive real estate inventory,housing prices began to show a downward trend.In order to avoid hidden dangers caused by excessive housing price declines,the first round of real estate purchase restriction policies began to loosen in 2010.Some cities have successively canceled purchase restriction policies,and the real estate industry has begun to pick up.Around the "Eleventh”in 2016,the rapid rise in housing prices has become the fuse of a new round of purchase restriction policies,and 22 cities have intensively issued regulatory policies related to the real estate industry.Beginning in 2017,Beijing and Xiamen took the lead in implementing the new policies on real estate regulation and control.More than 100 cities have successively issued real estate regulation and control policies,making 2017 the most stringent year for my country’s real estate market regulation and control policies.As a government’s mandatory regulation and control method on the real estate market,the purchase restriction policy is worthy of our analysis and research on the impact of the policy and the difference between the effects in different cities.This will help us treat the disease right and formulate a more reasonable and effective policy planThe article mainly uses empirical research methods to analyze the impact of purchase restrictions on real estate prices,and compares the differences in the implementation effects of purchase restrictions on different levels of cities.Firstly,the house price data of representative cities are compiled to establish a breakpoint regression model,select the optimal bandwidth and calculate the local Wald estimate to estimate the average processing effect of the purchase restriction policy.From the perspective of income level and population,explain the difference in the impact of purchase restrictions on first-tier and second-tier representative cities.Afterwards,the event analysis method was used to compare the effect of the implementation of the purchase restriction policy among first-tier,new-tier,and second-tier cities.The event period and the estimation period are determined according to the date of the purchase restriction policy,and a time series model is established to fit the city’s housing price data,predict the housing price in the estimation period and calculate the cumulative abnormal rate of return.The cumulative abnormal rate of return of all cities,first-tier cities and second-tier cities are tested separately to discuss the effect of purchase restriction policies on different levels of citiesThe article mainly uses empirical research methods to analyze the impact of purchase restrictions on real estate prices,and compares the differences in the implementation effects of purchase restrictions on different levels of cities.Firstly,the house price data of representative cities are compiled to establish a breakpoint regression model,select the optimal bandwidth and calculate the local Wald estimate to estimate the average processing effect of the purchase restriction policy.From the perspective of income level and population,explain the difference in the impact of purchase restrictions on first-tier and second-tier representative cities.Afterwards,the main research conclusions of the article using the event analysis method are as follows First,among cities of different grades,first-tier cities have the highest house prices and the largest changes in house prices.Second,the first-tier cities have a relatively high proportion of rigid demand and investment demand in the housing demand structure due to their large per capita income level and the proportion of population inflows,which makes the effect of first-tier cities to limit speculative demand-restricting purchase policies.In the second-tier cities,due to the relatively high proportion of speculative demand in their housing demand structure,the effect of the purchase restriction policy is relatively obvious.Third,by examining the cumulative abnormal rate of return on housing prices in all cities,the results show that the purchase restriction policy that began in 2016 did not significantly reduce housing prices in all sample cities Then separately analyze the first-tier,new first-tier and second-tier cities,and the research shows that house prices in first-tier and new first-tier cities have not decreased significantly after the introduction of the purchase restriction policy,while the decline in house prices in second-tier cities has passed the significance test.The effect of the city’s purchase restriction policy is weaker than that of second-tier citiesAfter researching the second round of purchase restriction policies,it is concluded that it is not a long-term plan to restrict house prices through purchase restriction policies.There are two aspects of demand and supply in the real estate market.The policy concept implemented by the government should not overly restrict demand but channel demand.It may be more critical to focus on solving real estate supply problems.Creating more real estate supply,easing urban housing demand,and minimizing administrative measures like purchase restriction policies to directly intervene in market transactions may be the correct way to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.