Analysis Of Trade Pattern Between China And Central Asian Countries Based On The Silk Road Economic Belt

Since the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001,bilateral relations have developed rapidly and have made a series of fruitful achievements in the fields of economy,trade,culture,energy,transportation and finance.Especially in 2013,Xi Jinping proposed Silk Road Economic Belt initiative in Nazarbayev's speech at the University which marks the development of Chinese and between Central Asian countries began to enter the golden age of development,Silk Road Economic Belt vision released in 2015 which ushered in development opportunities and broad space.China's trade with Central Asian countries from the beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2001 of $460 million,increased to $32 billion 600 million in 2015,an increase of about 70 times the size of trade.Strategic Silk Road Economic Belt is a major strategic Chinese opening contemporary,which has important historical and realistic significance of the Silk Road Economic Zone Construction in the new era under the background of regional cooperation strategy,under the background of traditional European and American market' downturn,developing potential market of the Central Asian,provides a new idea and opportunities for economic and trade cooperation between the China and Central Asian countries,which will further deepen pragmatic cooperation in China and Central Asian countries,creating a new era of history Chinese between Central Asian countries and trade and economic cooperation.Therefore,in the background of Silk Road Economic Belt,it is necessary to study Chinese and Central Asian countries' trade pattern,analysis of potential and influencing factors in bilateral trade,so as to achieve Chinese to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Central Asian countries and the bilateral trade reached the potential to put forward countermeasures and suggestions.This paper analyzes the current situation of the development of bilateral trade from the development process of the trade,Chinese and Central Asian countries over the years of trade and trade structure and the export similarity index and trade combined degree competition analysis of bilateral trade and use the intra industry trade index and trade complementary analysis revealed comparative advantage index further analysis of Chinese and Central Asian countries trade pattern from the time dimension;then analyze the factors to achieve the trade potential and measure the potential of bilateral trade by trade potential model;finally,on thebasis of the above research puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote bilateral trade and strengthen the potential for economic and trade cooperation.This paper is divided into four parts,the first part is the research background,research significance,theoretical basis,literature review,research methods and ideas,innovation and shortcomings.The introduction of the traditional theory of international trade,the Silk Road Economic Zone silk road fund channel theory and the theory of international direct investment in the application lay a theoretical foundation for further study of this paper.The second part is the present situation and problems of bilateral trade.Using the method of statistical description analysis of the current situation of bilateral trade,bilateral trade scale showing a growing trend,and the bilateral trade competition is weak from the trade competition and complementary perspective,trade integration increases,indicating that the two sides has further enhance trade cooperation and bilateral cooperation in space,the inter industry trade shows strong complementarity,it also can be seen that China the comparative advantage of labor-intensive products and energy products of the Central Asian countries will also continue to exist in the short term trade pattern has not changed much from RCA index.The third part is the analysis of bilateral trade potential.This paper uses the gravity model using the panel data of 6 countries in 2000-2015,this paper analyses the influence factors of bilateral trade flows,and the ratio of actual trade volume and trade volume of trade potential to simulate China and Central Asian countries were measured.The results shows that bilateral economic scale GDP,population size,spatial distance and the Internet are the main influencing factors of trade flow,and Chinese and Kazakhstan belong to the potential giant,with strategic Silk Road Economic Belt deepening and Kazakhstan bright road policy implementation,the two sides will continue to release the potential new development,and Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan belong to the trade potential development,need to take active measures to tap potential of bilateral trade.The fourth part is suggestions based on the previous research.