| People increasingly recognize that the pattern of economic growth at the expense of resource consumption and environmental pollution in the past is unsustainable.Green growth is seen as an effective way to get rid of environment and resource crisis and realize sustainable development by many countries and non-governmental organizations.It is now the key period for China to realize the transformation of the mode of economic development,to explore green growth path.Green growth,however,is a new concept of economic growth,a new mode of economic growth and human development.At present,the effective green growth model has not been formed,and few scholars mention the systemic research of green growth in the field of industry.A country's economy depends on the development of industry.At present,China is in the period of economic transition.Developing green industry is the key to realize green transformation in the future for China,thus being able to achieve green growth.Therefore,in this paper," Industrial Green Development Plan " and " Made in China 2025 " put forward by the development goals,the connotation and evaluation index of industrial green growth and economic environment-energy(3E)model,using the method of literature analysis and system dynamics analysis of green growth system of China's industrial content and frame structure,the building of the industrial system as the core in 2005-2025 China industrial model of green growth,green growth for the Chinese industry to provide a system of measurement and feedback tools,through the benchmark scenario simulation empirical analysis and evaluation of China's industrial green growth from 2005 to 2015 levels,predicting the trend of the industrial green growth in the future under the current state.Through setting and analyzing five kinds of situation,the control of fixed assets investment,industry,investment in science and technology and environment for Labor input parameters,the simulation of 2016-2025 China industrial dynamic change trend of green growth,and provide Suggestions for China's industrial practice of green growth.Scenario simulation and analysis results show that:(1)from 2005 to 2015,China's industrial green growth level rising steadily,the industrial added value of green rise year by year,gradually reduce industrial pollution,energy efficiency improved steadily.Green growth is expected between 2016 and 2025,the industry level along this trend will continue to rise,but still cannot meet the "Made in China 2025" and "Industrial Green Development Plan 2016-2020," the development goals and objectives,industrial structure adjustment has not been completed,industrial pollution is still serious,energy efficiency is increased,but the level of overall efficiency is still low,and can't meet the demand of the total energy consumption.In urgent need of effective means to accelerate the industrial green growth.(2)the restructuring,give attention to both efficiency and environmental protection is the best way of industrial green growth,the lower industry fixed asset investment and labor input,increased investment in industrial pollution control investment,science and technology to promote China's industrial green growth level of ascension,and help to adjust the industrial structure,reducing environment pollution and improve energy efficiency and energy saving. |
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