Congestion Assessment And Early Warning System Of Tourism Golden Week In Open World Heritage Sites

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's social economy,the continuous improvement of national income,the changing tradition of thought and the the improvement of transportation and information,the national public is increasingly seeking spiritual enjoymen,travel has gradually become the first choice for leisure time.Since1999,the State Council has amended and promulgated the "National Day Festival and Anniversary Holiday Law",the "Golden Week" holiday has been substantially adjusted,the domestic tourism appeared explosive growth.Domestic tourism in 2015 as high as 4billion people,an increase of 10.5%,while in 2016 only in the first half of domestic tourism has reached 2.236 billion person-times,up 10.47% over the same period last year.Domestic tourism presents tidal characteristics,Golden Week tourism flow when the surging time rush,Leading to traffic pressure huge scenic crowded,crowded tourism problems highlighted,therefore,the research on the crowding degree of tourism golden week has great practical significance.At the same time,the tourism industry itself has a high degree of sensitivity and vulnerability,compared with other industries,the possibility of the outbreak of the crisis than the past,and tourism Golden Week area highly congested situation greatly promoted the outbreak of the crisis,Security poses a huge threat.Therefore,the establishment of a scientific tourism early warning system to effectively prevent and resolve the crisis without delay,for the safety of the scenic area as well as the sustainable development of tourism is necessary.In this paper,the West Lake scenic area as the research object,to tourism congestion as a research perspective to stimulate the overload theory,social conflict theory,critical theory,event chain theory as a research guide to tourism congestion and early warning system for the research content,the use of literature This paper analyzes the three evaluation subsystems of tourists,tourism resources,tourism media and 19 evaluation factors,which are based on the analysis of the factors such as the psychologicalenvironment of tourists and the crowding of resource allocation in the scenic area.This paper analyzes the data by using AHP method and YAAHP software and SPSS 20.0,and combines the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct the multi-level fuzzy evaluation model,and makes the congestion evaluation of the West Lake Tourism Golden Week.The results show that the tourism congestion rate of the West Lake Scenic Area is the highest,and the comprehensive evaluation value of the tourism media is the highest,and the comprehensive evaluation value of the infrastructure and service is the highest.At the same time,in this paper,the results of this evaluation were analyzed and discussed in three aspects.On this basis,this paper analyzes the congestion safety crisis in the scenic area,and puts forward the suggestions of management promotion and early warning prevention and control.Based on the case study of the crowded early warning mechanism and early warning system of the open world heritage site,the congestion safety early warning system is constructed,including the information collection subsystem,the data analysis and forecasting subsystem,the warning level identification subsystem,Early warning strategy.According to the express provisions issued by the State Council and the warning grading index as the specific classification of early warning classification principle,the West Lake tourism congestion warning level is divided into five levels and put forward the corresponding classification strategy.In the specific content,firstly,it puts forward that the application of Bob Rui as a crowd monitoring system to early warning monitoring,using its DSP processing technology and intelligent image video processing technology,in order to reduce the labor intensity and intelligent integrated management;Secondly,the use of gray Model: GM GM GM model to achieve a quantitative forecast of the safety risk of crowded people in order to advance the early warning deployment prevention and control;Finally,the application of the AnyLogic simulation software,according to the West Lake tour and facilities layout,pedestrian library modeling,Build a simulation model,demonstrate the flow of tourists within the scenic area continue to gather the process,and predict the future trend of crowding.