Simulation Of Spatial Change Of Land Use Pattern In Guangfeng Area And Its Impact On The Delimitation Of Primary Farmland

Primary farmland is of vital importance to national welfare and people’s livelihood as the main source of food production.The protection of primary farmland is urgently needed in China.China has experienced decades of remarkable economic development accompanied by accelerated population growth,which has resulted in rapid urban expansion,farmland loss and other social and environmental problems.Sharp conflicts between the development and utilization of land and the protection of farmland became increasingly important.Therefore,it’s a key point to delimit primary farmland scientifically and rationally and also a hot issue to protect our precious farmland.Guangfeng county is a strong economic area in Shangrao,it stands in a crucial period of industrialization and urbanization after it turned from county into district in 2015.Consequently,Guangfeng will be confronted with rigid demand for urban area.In this context,it’s particularly important to carry out practical work of primary farmland.In order to ensure the quantity and quality of primary farmland while distributing layout of primary farmland scientifically.In terms of the number,we take primary farmland protecting quota as the target number.In terms of the quality aspects,taking primary farmland protection layer as working map,excluding the portion of historical reasons or abrupt farmland more than 25 degrees slope,then referring to agricultural land grading results and giving priority to delimit high quality farmland as primary farmland.In terms of the layout aspects: In order to avoid the affecting of non-agricultural construction and agricultural structure adjustment and realize the stability of the primary farmland,CLUE-S model is used to simulate land use change tendency.At length,we optimize the connectivity of primary farmland according to the results and make comparisons between predicted primary farmland and planning primary farmland.The main conclusion of this research is as follows:(1)The evaluation system of primary farmland contains farmland slope,quality of farmland,the impact on farmland caused by changes of land use spatial pattern and farmland connectivity.This paper combines CLUE-S and Markov model to predict land use types’ change trend from two aspects,quantity and space by selecting driving factors such as population density,elevation,aspect,slope,the closet distance from railway,ect.Through simulation verification,it shows that in the space of 80m*80m scales,the CLUE-S model would simulate Guangfeng area land use changes best.The value of Kappa achieved 97.17%.(2)Through the simulation,the results shows it has a tendency that farmland turned to construction land,forest land,other land.The transformation from farmland to construction land is the most significantly,it reflects in the central city and along the traffic trunk line nearby in particular.With the rapid urbanization and the developing of economic construction in Guangfeng area,the conflicts between construction land expanding and the protection of farmland increasingly.So it makes great significance to dovetail land use change into the evaluation system of primary farmland.(3)Based on the quality and quantity of the primary farmland,taking townships as unit to evaluate the connectivity of primary farmland.The area of Guangfeng primary farmland is 27325.70 hectares ultimately.Compared with the planning primary farmland,the results achieve higher quality,connectivity and stability of the primary farmland and more advantageous to realize scale agriculture operation.Therefore,the idea is desirable which is based on the simulation of land use change space and taken the quality,quantity and connectivity into consideration.