| Globalization has become a global trend which profoundly affects the economic and social development. Land use/cover change(LUCC) has become the focus in the geography and land science, and dynamic simulation of Land use is the core content of LUCC. With the pressure of rising population and environment problems, land resources becomes increasingly important.In recent years, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations have become reform pilot area of building "Two-Oriented Society", "Innovation Model Area", and "Xiang River New District". With the promotion of national strategies such as "One Belt and One Road" and "Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Construction", great changes has taken place in Land use of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations.Pressures of Land use also emerge in this process. Therefore, the simulation of Land use of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations will have a certain practical significance for the development of economy and society.This paper studies Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations, six types of Land use extracted from the RS data of year 2005, 2010 and 2014, which are cultivated land, forest land, grassland, urban and rural construction land, water and unused land.Considering the actual situation of the research region, determined 13 natural, economic and social driving factors which has a great influence on Land use. Using grey prediction GM(1,1) model predicted future demand of various land types, then predicted the dynamic evolution process of Land use in the year 2025 of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations with the CLUE-S model. The following conclusions are drawn:(1)the spatial pattern of land use in 2005-2010 years is relatively stable with respect to 2014-2025 and 2010-2014, and the amount of variation and spatial transfer of all kinds of changes are smaller than that of the latter.Especially from 2014 to 2025 of the most significant change, among them, the change of cultivated land and urban and rural construction land, the largest amount of urban and rural construction land sustained and rapid growth,the proportion of the total area increased from 11.63% to 14.87%. The area of cultivated land decreased gradually, and the proportion of the total area decreased from 38.09% to 32.27%.Conditions on the spatial pattern of increase or decrease performance is:urban and rural construction land increased significantly in the area of three city center, the area of arable land decreased significantly in the surrounding areas of three cities. In this process, the other spatial pattern also has different changes in the situation.(2)200m*200m is the best grid scale that suited for spatial Land use pattern situation of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations. Choosing the right simulation scale which in accord with the real Land use situation of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations is very important in this simulation. This study selected five grid scales to make a comprehensive comparison, of which 200m*200m scale has the biggest ROC values, all values surpassed 0.74.(3)The simulation results can well simulate the spatial pattern of Land use change of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations. In the process of simulation,result shows the simulative Kappa index was 0.8023. The simulation results can well simulate the spatial pattern of Land use change of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations.(4)This paper adopt the scenario simulation method, by simulating the starting year of Land use changing situation, and with the reference of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations planning related to Land use, established three Scenario models, which are "natural growth Scenario", "rapid economic development Scenario" and "ecological development focused Scenario".Simulated and predicted land demand in three different situations with the grey prediction GM(1,1) model, and then predicted the spatial pattern of Land use of study area in 2025. Due to the different influence mechanism, a great difference can be seen under three different situation simulations, Simulation result shows that, The spatial pattern of cultivated land, urban and rural construction land is more obvious under the "natural growth scenario", The spatial pattern of urban and rural construction land under the "rapid economic development Scenario" is the most significant.The spatial pattern change of forest land is most obvious under the " ecological development focused Scenario".(5)Through different scenarios simulation results found that the land use of changsha-zhuzhou-xiangtan urban agglomeration in the scale structure and spatial layout has some problems, for related issues should be reasonable development space, to protect agricultural land scale, attaches great importance to the protection of ecological land use space. |
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