Analysis And Simulation Of Land-use Spatial Pattern In Zhengzhou

Land-use change plays an important role in the quality of global environmental, productivity of terrestrial ecosystem and process of regional water cycle. Analysis and simulation of regional land-use spatial pattern change has become the focus of LUCC research. Zhengzhou which located in the hinterland of the central plains is the important traffic hub of our country. Since 1990 s, a large number of farmland was occupied by the urban land. Great changes have taken place in the structure of land-use, the contradiction between human and land become increasingly prominent.This paper analyzes the spatial pattern changes of land-use in Zhengzhou between 1988 and 2014. From 1988 to 2014, great changes of the spatial pattern of land-use in Zhengzhou had taken place, which included the quantity and landscape pattern. Lost the original advantage position, the area of farmland reduced by nearly 2/3.Construction land, which including residential land, industrial land and transportation land, expanded rapidly to the surrounding, which reached an area of growth in more than 1.5 times. Compared with the original state, the structure of land-use types showed more balanced. The degree of land-use changes from 2001 to 2014 showed more dramatically than thirteen years ago. In almost 30 years, the economic achieved rapid growth, industrial structure had changed contrarily. Using Markov model and principal components analysis, the relationship between demand of land-use and regional driving factors of social and economic was described quantitatively.The spatial distribution of land use types were calculated by binary logistic regression model, the results of simulation showed that the value of ROC was over 0.75. The spatial pattern of land-use in 2014 was simulated by CLUE-S model, the rate of correctness and kappa index reached 80% and 0.767, which indicated the feasibility of CLUE-S model in the study area. The spatial pattern of land-use in 2020 was simulated by CLUE-S model and the expected changes of the spatial pattern of land-use from 2014 to 2020 were discussed and analyzed. The result showed that construction land would reach 72.74% which occupied absolute advantage status and farmland for only 19.19% in 2020. Compared to the year of 2014, each index of land-use patch level showed nearly unchanged. However, the index of landscape level played a downward trend. In the process of rapid urbanization, the impact of human factors on land-use spatial pattern performed more seriously.