Analysis On The International Competitiveness And Trade Potential Of Chinese Walnuts

Walnuts has multiple benefits in ecology and economy.With the increasingly deepened public understanding of Walnut's benefits,the global demand of Walnut products has grown drastically.Compared with the rapidly increasing import,Chinese walnut export is going downward in fluctuations.As a result,the international competitiveness of Chinese walnut is substantially weakened and falls greatly behind the expectation.Meanwhile,as the export market of Chinese walnut is highly concentrated,the global economic crisis in 2008 worsened the industry which has already weakened.Therefore,a comprehensive analysis of the real situation of Chinese walnut export,the potential international competitiveness,influencing factors and trade potentials will play a referential role in increasing the walnut product export and developing its international competitiveness.Considering the big difference between trade volumes and export countries,the walnut products herein are divided into two types:walnut with shell and walnut shelled,the former is regarded as primary agricultural products,and the latter featured by processed agricultural products.The paper firstly analyzes the outputs and trade situations of Chinese walnut in both domestic and abroad;secondly compares the real competitiveness situations of Chinese walnut with shell and shelled by selecting three indicators,namely,International Market Share,Trade Competitiveness and Revealed Comparative Advantage,and analyzes the potential competitiveness of the both by using Export Price Ratio,Trade Price Index,Production and Yield;and finally,based on the trade gravity model,empirically analyzes the influencing trade factors with respect to the walnuts both with shell and shelled,and further measures the trade potentials of the two and proposes some policy recommendations in terms of trade potential development correspondingly.The results show that:(l)from the present situation,the trade of Chinese walnut is uncoordinated with production.Although the growth in output is consistent with world level,export growth lags behind the world level,besides,the export market is too concentrated and relies significantly on traditional Asia markets,such as Japan,Hong Kong and South Korea,thus increasing the instability of market.Among all walnut products exported,the export of walnut with shell accounts for a minority,while of walnut shelled is in the majority due to its small size and high economic value,and,for this reason,it becomes the main source of export earnings in Chinese walnut industry.(2)From the international competitiveness,Chinese walnut is increasingly weakening,mainly in:the drastically falling global market share of Chinese walnut,the shrinking export volume and market,the weakening trade competitiveness and comparative advantage,and the widening gap with major trading countries in this industry.From the comparison of international competitiveness between walnut with shell and shelled,the former,transformed into net import from net export,has no longer any comparative advantages;and despite the fact that the latter is invariably net export,its competitive advantage is relatively weaker.From the potential international competitiveness,Chinese walnut is relatively stronger in it,mainly in:the increase of export price of Chinese walnut,quality improvement,better export conditions and high output capability and yield rate.However,some factors,for instance,high production costs,inferior quality compared with developed countries,single variety,the emerging American walnut industry and the dramatically increasing domestic demands,have constrained the development of Chinese walnut products in potential competitiveness.(3)From the trade influencing factors,there is a big difference between walnut shelled and with shell.From the former,the GDP of importing country and the output value of Chinese walnut facilitate the trade growth of it,the world economic crisis,however,hampered its growth.China's per capita income has led to a substantial increase in domestic demands and a decrease in export of walnut with shell,affecting the growth of export volume.Elsewhere in the world,Chinese walnuts shelled are mainly exported to Europe and Asia.From the latter,the greater the distance is,the higher the transport will cost,thereby hindering the growth of export volume of walnuts shelled.With the increase of China's per capita income,domestic demand has blossomed,thus hindering the export growth of walnuts with shell.The export market of walnut with shell is mainly located in Asian region.(4)From the trade potential,there is a big difference between Chinese walnut with shell and shelled,the main development market of the latter is concentrated in Asia and Europe,such as Indonesia in southeast Asia and Italy in Europe,and so on,while the major trade potential market of the former is located in Asia,especially Southeast Asia,mainly Singapore,Turkey,Kuwait and other emerging markets.