| In the whole country,the real estate market appears imbalance between supply and demand.The inventory problem is serious.But,at the same time,actively reducing overcapacity is one of the focuses of the economic development.From the point of short-term,lower production capacity will inevitably have a negative impact on economic growth,especially for heavy industry cities.This negative effects will be amplified as the reducing overcapacity policy relating to their pillar industry of economic growth,reduce the city’s real estate market demand,and be harmful to the real estate inventory digestion.Therefore,discussing how the demand of real estate market in heavy industry cities is affected by the reducing overcapacity policy,plays an active role in the rational development of the real estate industry in heavy cities.Among the literatures of influencing factors about real estate and overcapacity,there are no literatures link them together.The objective of this paper is to test the impact of reducing overcapacity policy on the real estate demand in heavy industrial cities.This paper combine with economic situation,and broaden the scope of academic research about real estate,which makes the paper significant theoretically and practically.This paper firstly reviews the domestic and foreign literature about the impact factors of real estate demand,the reducing overcapacity policy and its mutual influence.Secondly,this paper expounds three conductive effects of the reducing overcapacity policy influencing the real estate demand in heavy industry cities,based on the theory interpreted about influencing factors on real estate and overcapacity.Furthermore,after elaborating how our country’s reducing overcapacity policy was proposed,this paper put forward a method to divide the heavy industrial cities.After using PSM method to match cities for typical heavy industrial cities,this paper describes the current situation of real estate demand for heavy industrial cities,from the angles of overall and typical.In the empirical aspect,based on the short panel data of 100 city’ real estate market in 2013-2015,this paper builds a difference model and a DID model to test the impact of reducing overcapacity policy on the real estate demand in heavy industrial cities.In addition,this paper tests the timeliness of the impact by further refining the explanatory variable.Finally,this paper makes a classification test by dividing the real estate market into residential market and the other market.The empirical results show that the reducing overcapacity policy has asignificant negative impact on the real estate demand in heavy industrial cities,and the impact on residential market is more significant,while the effect on other market is not obvious.The effectiveness test of the policy results show that the second year of the policy is weakened.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of heavy industrial cities from the aspects of expanding the capacity of residents to purchase,stabilizing the employment situation,and optimizing the industrial structure. |
