Theoretical And Empirical Research Of Free Trade Agreement Trade Creation Effect-Illustrated By The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement

The implementation of China-Australia FTA is one of the most important achievement in international FTA negotiations during the past few years.Many researchers predicted that the implement of China-Australia FTA will absolutely increase international trade bilaterally during the period of negotiations.Whether it promoted bilateral exports or not after the implementation.This dissertation will focus on the effect by using the exports and imports data.In this dissertation,we referred to other researchers’ methods during discussing FTA.By using trade data of China and Australia to confirm the FTA effect for international trade.First,we calculated several trade degrees,found out the complementarities of China and Australia.Second,by calculating the FTA coverage rate and utilization rate to evaluate the openness of China-Australia FTA.Third,we used Synthesis Control Methods to compare the synthetic Australia and real Australia.Then,evaluated whether the implementation of FTA enhance the bilateral trade.Main results for this dissertation are followed.First:China and Australia have strong trade complementarities,the implement of FTA will boost the development of bilateral trade.Second:Currently,the coverage rate and utilization rate of China-Australia FTA is very small.The reason for low coverage rate may be the year-by-year reduce way of tariffs.Exporters chose not to use FTA rate,which led the low utilization rate.Third:After the implement of China-Australia FTA,the increase of bilateral trade was unobvious.Considering ten months is too short,the promotion to bilateral trade may need more time to prove in the future.