| As the emerging business format of the combination of tourism and real estate, and after 20 years' development in our country, tourism real estate industry has become an economic situation which is nearly maturing. With the benefit from three factors - the resident leisure travel demand driven, the pressure of traditional real estate transformation and upgrading and the support of relevant national policies, the tourism real estate industry has achieved a leapfrog development. In 2015, the investment of China's tourism real estate reached 930.2 billion yuan, which hit a record high. In terms of the amount of tourism real estate development projects, a total of 5297 companies have involved in the development of tourism real estate projects, the developed tourism real estate projects ran into 8701. The integrated tourism real estate projects whose investment scale reached tens of billions all over the country can be found everywhere, and their contents include theme parks, large stage shows, hotel groups, conference centers, tourist towns, leisure resorts,bars, shopping centers, eco parks, second homes, etc. As the tourism real estate has features like the amount of investment is huge, the development cycle is long, and the management is difficult and so on, its whole process of development may face greater risk.But because of China's tourism real estate development time is not too long, the relevant practical experience and theoretical research relatively lack, especially that the research for tourism real estate risk management is not systematic. Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk management of tourism real estate.According to the general rule of tourism real estate development, and combing with the features and development trend of China's tourism real estate,as well as from the three dimensions - the development process, risk source, risk effect results of tourism real estate project, this paper will construct the tourism real estate risk 3D recognition model and establishes a tourism real estate risk index system. And then, this paper will use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to score the tourism real estate risk index, and determine the indicator weight. Considering the non - linear characteristics of tourism real estate project development risk factors, it is necessary to make a nonlinear improvement for the traditional fuzzy comprehensive analysis (FCE). Eventually, this paper will evaluate the f tourism real estate risk indicators by adopting the nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, so as to solve poor influence problem of outstanding indicators, and obtain more reasonable tourism real estate project risk evaluation results.At last,this paper will take M tourism real estate project development as the example to carry on the empirical analysis, the risk level of M tourism real estate projects is common risk, after comparing the evaluation results with the evaluation results of traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the result show that the nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method expands the impact of outstanding influence evaluation results, which proves that it is more reasonable in dealing with the indicators with outstanding influence. And then according to the risk assessment results of M tourism real estate, this paper gives out the specific risk response strategy and risk monitoring process. |
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