Export Market Segmentation Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And Countries Along "the Belt And Road":Based On The Method Of Trade Continuum

“The Belt and Road” initiative has brought a new development opportunity for economic development in China,and agricultural economic and trade cooperation is an important part of “the Belt and Road” construction.Countries along “the Belt and Road” have their own resource advantages and their economies are mutually complementary.Therefore,there is a great potentiality and space for cooperation.However,Countries along the Belt and Road have different market access degrees,levels of trade openness and international market demand.In the face of the country along the Belt and Road with different levels of market access and trade characteristics,the traditional trade strategies that distinguishing agricultural trade partners with geographical region has gradually shown its disadvantages.However,we cannot utilize the “applicable everywhere” strategy of the agricultural product export,but we need “cut the dress according to one’s figure” for specific market demand and characteristics,and adopt various trade strategies.In that way,what is the basic situation of agricultural trade in the countries along “the Belt and Road”? Which agricultural products have the comparative advantages in China? How to quantify the level of market access of agricultural products in each countries? How to construct the index system of agricultural product trade continuum? How to effectively identify the specific market in which the different countries are? Surrounding with these study questions,this dissertation makes an empirical study.The study issues is carried out with the logical thinking of “Trade statusComparative advantage-Market segmentation-Trade strategy”.In order to make a thorough study of the current status and basic characteristics of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road”,based on the HS 4 digital agricultural products trade data,this dissertation studies the current status of total trade,regional trade and species trade,and trade structure and export concentration,and then judges the characteristics of agricultural trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road”.The result shows: on the whole,the agricultural trade connection between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” is becoming closer,and the trade deficit is shrinking.From the perspective of the region,the export of agricultural products between China and each regions is increasing.ASEAN is the most important trade partner of agricultural products,followed by West Asia and the Middle East and Mongolia.From the perspective of the categories,the export of agricultural products between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” is growing with a rapid growth,and its main export species are aquatic products and horticultural products.In addition,the export concentration is not high,and export species structure is of dispersion.In order to study the dynamic comparative advantage of agricultural products between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road” thoroughly,this paper utilizes the TC index and RCA index to calculate the total and regional comparative advantage in the year of 2000-2015,and then builds a trade competitive advantage matrix to investigate both the numbers and directions change of species of horticultural products and aquatic products with comparative advantage.The results shows that,On the whole,the agricultural products competitiveness between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road” is weak,but has been improved.The agricultural products trade is lack of comparative advantage,and it’s getting worse.In terms of species,there is a strong competitive advantage of horticultural products and aquatic products in China,and the species numbers with competitive advantage is becoming expanded.However,the cereal products has lost its competitive advantage.There is a strong competitive advantage in vegetables,subtropical fruits and their processed products of Chinese horticultural products,and as well as fish and mollusks in aquatic products.In order to distinguish the position of the countries along “the Belt and Road” on trade continuum,and put forward the differentiated strategy of agricultural products export trade,taking horticultural products and aquatic products as the research object,this paper builds a HS 4 digital tariff database,and constructs an index system of agricultural products market segmentation with 16 index,from the aspects of national economic situation,market capacity,market access,customs environment and institutional environment.Then,on the basis of reliability test,this paper utilizes hierarchical cluster analysis to make a cluster analysis to classify export market of China” agricultural products.Finally,it puts forward various export strategies of China” agricultural products with different trade continuum countries.The result shows as follows,firstly,the market capacities of the countries along “the Belt and Road” are of great different,so well as the consumption level.The consumption level of ASEAN countries is relatively high,but that of some Western Asia and the Middle East is relatively low.The level of market access in each country is of high variation,while the free trade area is relatively easy to enter.The level of market access in ASEAN and some central and Eastern European countries,protection is low,while that in some Western Asia and the Middle East,South Asian countries is relatively high.Thirdly,each countries are in different positions of the pedigree of agricultural products trade continuum,and ASEAN countries is the most important agricultural export trade partner of China.According to the method of trade continuum,the export markets of agricultural products in countries along “the Belt and Road” are divided into 4 categories: the main trading countries,the secondary trading countries,trade potential countries and trade development countries.Finally,this dissertation has put forward some suggestions,based on the study above,to improve the agricultural cooperation between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road”,and expand the export of agricultural products in China,such as Innovating ways of cooperation and strengthening international cooperation in agriculture;deeply excavating the agricultural products comparative advantage,cultivating the advantageous agricultural products;promoting export diversification and implementing different export strategies.In the basis of previous research,this dissertation tries to innovatively explore from following aspects:Firstly,introducing a trade continuum method to the index system of international agricultural products market segmentation,this dissertation utilizes the hierarchical cluster analysis method to segment the agricultural products export market between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road”.According to the five aspects of national economic situation,market capacity,market access,customs environment and institutional environment,this dissertation constructs an export market segmentation index system of 16 index,and makes a cluster analysis of agricultural products export market,that providing a supplement for the previous studies.Secondly,with the latest HS 4 digital agricultural products data,this dissertation studies the basic situation and comparative advantage of agricultural products trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road”.Based on the analysis of the overall structure,regional structure and product structure of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road” in 2000-2015,the competitive advantage of HS 4 digital horticultural products and aquatic products has been further studied.The research results not only improve the accuracy of agricultural trade situation and comparative advantage judgment between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road”,but also show the change direction of the comparative advantage varieties to the agricultural products,which is in more depth compared with similar studies.Thirdly,establishing a HS 4 digital horticultural products and aquatic products tariff database,and taking the trade weighted tariff as a measurement of the tariff level,which offers a clearer understanding of agricultural products market access level.On the basis of the data and files from WITS database,WTO database and Service Network of China Tariff Free Trade Area,constructing a HS 4 digital tariff database of horticultural products and aquatic products,and then calculating the trade weighted tariff data to measure the tariff,which makes the conclusion be more general and universal.