Influence Factors And The Dual Margin Of Chinese Agricultural Products Export Growth

Since the 1990 s,Chinese agricultural exports have maintained a good momentum of growth.In 1995,Chinese agricultural exports reached $15 billion and had grown to $ 71.96 billion by 2014,the average annual growth rate reached 8.16%.Although agricultural export grew rapidly in China,it will be volatile when face the impact of the economic crisis every time.In 1997,the financial crisis in Southeast Asia dropped agricultural exports growth rate from 7.69% in 1997 to-12.50% in 1998.The global financial crisis in 2008 led to an increase in the export growth rate of agricultural products from 19.27% in 2007 to 3.3% in 2008 and-2.25% in 2009.Which has fully exposed the instability,high risk and vulnerability of China's agricultural exports.The sharp fluctuation in Chinese agricultural exports which is caused by the impact of the economic shock makes people continuously reflect on the current pattern of agricultural export growth.The New Trade Theory,which is represented by the enterprise heterogeneity model,provides a new perspective for us to study the phenomenon of export growth.The theory holds that the growth in trade depends mainly on two paths: intensive marginal growth and extended marginal growth.The intensive margin means export specialization and the extended margin means export diversification.Then,how did Chinese agricultural export growth achieve?Which factors will affect the path of agricultural export growth? What are the differences in the impact when different factors affect on the intensive margin and the extended margin? What is the relationship between the vulnerability of Chinese agricultural export growth and the binary margin? In the context of the Belt and Road,these issues are worthy to be deeply discussed.The basic theory and empirical research of the binary margin are firstly reviewed in this paper.Then,the current situation of Chinese agricultural trade development is summarized,followed by using the H-K measurement to measure the binary margin of Chinese agricultural export growth,aiming at determining the growth path of Chinese agricultural export.The panel model is used to examine the binary marginal factors which influence the growth of Chinese agricultural exports,emphasizing on the reasons for the vulnerability of Chinese agricultural export growth.Finally,the research conclusions are summarized and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.The results of this research show that the growth of Chinese agricultural exports is driven by both the intensive margin and the extended margin,but the intensive margin contributes the main part,which accounts for more than 60%.The economic scale has a significant positive impact on the intensive margin,the proportion of the agricultural added value in GDP,the trade cost and the economic crisis have a significant negative impact on the intensive margin.The proportion of agricultural added value in GDP and the regional economic integration agreement signed with China have significant positive effects on the extended margin.Trade cost and annual growth rate of per capita GDP have a significant negative impact on the extended margin.The economic crisis has a significant negative impact on the intensive margin,and the extended margin plays a role as a stabilizer which provides a new perspective to explain the vulnerability in Chinese agricultural export growth and an abundant policy reference.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations in order to promote the sustained and healthy development of Chinese agricultural exports: Firstly,develop the diversification of agricultural exports,expand the marginal structure.Secondly,increase the value of agricultural products to achieve price advantage.Thirdly,improve the level of trade convenience,reduce the cost of trade.Fourthly,actively promote the construction of free trade zone.Fivethly,rationally choose the export markets.