Dual Margin Analysis On The Export Growth Of China

Due to the reform and opening-up policies, China’s export grow rapidly and it has been ranked first in the world. But at the same time, China’s export growth is influenced by the world shock obviously. For there is no effective control of external demand, this paper focuses Dual Margin Analysis on the Export Growth of China.First of all, this paper selects D-S model, heterogeneous firm trade model and gravity model as the theoretical basis, and analyses the influence of dual margin from the product level and enterprise level respectively. Then, it decomposes the dual margin of China’s export growth from multilateral trade and bilateral trade, using the HS-6 trade data of Uncomtrade Database. From1992 to 2013, in the areas of multilateral trade, whether the type number or the amount of export products, China’s export growth is owing to the intensive margin mainly. But in the areas of bilateral trade, extensive margin plays an important role in China’s export growth. Next, it examines the China’s bilateral trade in 1996 to 2013 by using panel data model. Through the empirical test, the paper finds that GDP, labor productivity, variable trade cost and multilateral resistance have positive impact on intensive margin and extensive margin, but the impact is different. Fixed trade cost has negative influence on extensive margin. External shocks can lead to a decline in China’s export growth in the intensive margin and extensive margin at the same time, but the impact is not the same. Finally according to the conclusions of the theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations.