| Over the past two decades,world trade has grown rapidly,far more than global economic development.However,in recent years,the global trade growth has slowed down due to the financial crisis.The economic shock and export fluctuation caused people to deeply reflect on the existing growth pattern of foreign trade.Since the 17th CPC National Congress,China has proposed to accelerate the transformation of trade growth pattern.The 18th CPC National Congress again highlights the necessity to promote the shift from scale to quality.Trade growth has become a hot topic in the world.How does countries' trade growth change?Which expansion path does China rely on?What are the influence factors of trade growth?The study of these problems has practical significance.In this paper,we analyse the characteristics and fluctuations of trade growth in major countries(regions)from the national and industrial level.The results are that countries with large scale usually show low and stable export growth,while countries with small scale own higher export growth rate.Behind the high growth rate,export growth shows much fluctuation.At the industrial level,the export growth of resource-intensive industries shows the greatest fluctuation.It declines most quickly when external shock comes.Labor-intensive industries expand much slower.The export fluctuation of capital and technology intensive industries is more consistent,and the two industries have seen relatively good export performance in the last two years,with low negative growth rate.To further analyze the dependence path of trade growth,with the help of extensive and intensive margin,we find that the export growth of most low income countries with small trade scale mainly rely on extensive margin during 1995-2015;few high income countries largely rely on price growth.The export growth patterns show greater differences in different industries.China's rapid export growth contributes to the combination of extensive and intensive margin,but quantity growth promotes best.So it is with labor-intensive,capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry exports.In the empirical analysis,we use panel data to find out the determinant factors of trade growth both in multinational and single-country models.We choose extensive and intensive margin as dependent variables,economic size,demand,FDI,technological innovation,trade cost,exchange rate,financial development,external shock as independent variables in multinational models.The variables appear as relative forms in the single-country model.Results show that economic size,technological innovation and FDI have a positive impact on trade growth;while trade cost,exchange rate and external shock affect margins negatively.Among them,trade cost inhibits growth most.The financial development will promote extensive margin while inhibit quantity and price margin.In terms of China's export growth,the impact of the free trade zone should not be underestimated.Therefore,China should increase research and development of technological innovation;further promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation process to reduce transaction costs.Increasing the actual utilization of FDI helps to attract more FDI.By actively promoting the diversification process of export markets,China could improve the ability to withstand external shocks,so as to achieve the transformation of the trade growth pattern from the number to the quality model as soon as possible. |
