Study Of The Trade Effects Of The Free Trade Area Of The Asia-Pacific Based On Global Value Chain

With some difficulties in the negotiations of multilateral trade,regional and bilateral free trade negotiations in the world becomes more and more prevalent.The United States opens a new path,which leads to promote Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement(TPP)and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement(TTIP),trying to implement the "go away from China" strategy.China is actively looking for other trading partners to build a free trade area.On November 20,2016,the 24th Asia-Pacific economic cooperation(APEC)informal leaders meeting has closed in Lima,Peru's capital.At the meeting,the leaders approved the collective strategy research report submitted by the Council of Ministers of the Asia-Pacific free trade area and related policy recommendations,regarded as the Lima Declaration,which means the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific(FTAAP)has been put into action.Therefore,there is some important practical significance in the study of the trade effects of FTAAP based on global value chain.This paper analyzed the history and current situation of trade relationship in the Pacific-Asian area by the use of qualitative analysis.Then it made a detailed analysis of trade structure from both trade and GVC perspectives and found that there is strong complementarity between members of APEC.So,all of them have a more solid foundation for cooperation.Based on the theoretical analysis,the paper used a general equilibrium model-GTAP model.By the model,the trade effects after the establishment of Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific were specific predictions.And the structure of trade,the terms of trade,the value of imports and exports and so on since the establishment of free trade area were calculated.From the theoretical point of view,the trade in the Pacific-Asian has developed rapidly.Members in Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific have a growing trade and economic relations.From the empirical results,the establishment of Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific will bring benefits to both to enhance and promote economic development.Meanwhile,joining the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific will help China promote its industrial upgrading and improve its position in global value chains.Therefore,there is not only strategic significance but also economic significance in the establishment of Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.