An Empirical Analysis Of The Structural Changes Of China's Three Industries And The Slowdown Of Economic Growth

During the first three decades of reform and opening up,China’s overall industrial structure has showed the trend of a decline in the proportion of the primary industry and the second and tertiary industries increased the proportion.In this process,The effect of industrial structure change on economic growth is gradually recognized by academics and policy makers.However,with the transformation of China’s economic development stage,the impact of industrial structure change on economic growth has become less clear.Mechanism of the structure change of three industries,its impact on economic growth and whether the industrial structure change as many scholars said is the main factor of this round of economic slowdown,are to research in this paper.On the basis of the studies reviewed in this paper,first of all we analyze and model construction of industrial structure change.Then we deduce the mechanism of the impact of industrial structure change on economic growth.Theoretical analysis results showed that the effect of industrial structure change on economic growth depends on the productivity of employment share of elasticity,elasticity of labor and employment share changes of three industries.Then there is the empirical analysis.We use "shift-share method" to find out the effects of industrial structure change from the productivity,and use " Syrquin method " to get the effects of industrial structure change from total factor productivity growth.Finally,we make a comparative analysis.The empirical results show that since reform and opening up China’s industrial structure change has significant positive effects on economic growth for most of the time,which in recent years has shown a downward trend.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions.Industry structure change depends on market demands and the relationship of the total factor productivity of the three industries and the growth of the total factor productivity of social weighted average.Since the reform and opening up,the impact of industrial structure change on China’s economic growth is significant,which showing a gradually weakening trend in recent years.This round of economic growth slowdown is mainly driven by structural factors and technical factors.China is currently in the stage when "Structure-bonus"gradually dissipated and" cost disease "has not yet formed.