The Impacts Of Delaying Retirement On China’s Unemployment Rate

In recent years,the debate on the issue of delaying retirement has been conspicuous,and the impact of this policy on the job market has become one of the focuses of the discussion.What is the impact of delaying retirement on the unemployment rate?The economic academics have not formed a broad consensus on this.On the basis of the existing achievements,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the delayed retirement policy and discusses the possible impact of the policy on the unemployment rate in China’s four major economic regions.In the theoretical part,this paper starts with the question of why we need to delay the retirement age in our country.Drawing on the theoretical results of the retraining policy in the academics,we analyze the current retirement system and discuss the necessity and feasibility of delaying retirement.On this basis,this paper analyzes the mechanism of delaying retirement on the employment market.Based on the job search theory,this paper draws on Lefebvre’s theoretical model to analyze that what impact the retirement behavior of the elderly will have on the job market.Then,it analyzes the impacts of delayed retirement will have on the unemployment rate.In the simulation part,this paper makes use of the annual data of China Statistics Bureau from 2003 to 2014.Firstly,the future data of explanatory variables and control variables are predicted by using PADIS-INT population analysis and prediction software.Secondly,using the STATA statistical software,the FGLS estimation method is used to regress the relevant data of the three major economic regions so that to obtain the regression equation.Into the regression equation of each region to calculate the future unemployment rate.By bringing the predicted value into the regression equations,it calculated the future unemployment rate.The simulation results show that the implementation of the delayed retirement policy not only failed to increase the regional unemployment rate,but also reduced the regional unemployment rate.In addition,this paper found that China’s unemployment rate differences between three major economic regions.The eastern region has the highest unemployment rate,followed by the central region and the western region.Under the postponing policy,the differences of unemployment rate between regions has narrowed.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper finally puts forward some policy suggestions.