Study On The Combination Of Long-Term Mechanism And Short-Term Mechanism Of China's Economic Growth

Long-term economic growth and short-term economic fluctuations are the most important research topics in macroeconomics.They are two aspects of a problem but due to the difference between two methods,most of the existing literatures are separated from each other.After entering new norm,how to determine the future trend of economic growth and how to understand the current economic growth decline have great significance.Both the theoretical and practical issues need to combine the long-term economic growth and short-term growth.This paper is based on the existing literature,analyze the long-term growth,short-term growth and the relationship between them,combined with long-term and short-term perspective of Chinese economic growth in the past,present and future,try to build the framework of Chinese economy Long-term growth and short-term growth to explore combination of long-term economic growth mechanism and the short-term mechanism.Firstly,this paper elaborates the mechanism of long-term economic growth from the perspective of supply and elaborates the mechanism of short-term economic growth from the perspective of demand and study the relationship between long-term and short-term.Secondly,this paper use the empirical method to analyze the long-term economic growth and short-term economic growth in China since the reform and opening-up,including use the production function method to estimate the potential growth rate,use the"valley-valley" approach to divide the time from reform and opening up into five time periods and to analyses the characteristics and reasons of economic fluctuations in each cycle,and the relationship with the long-term growth trend.Thirdly,the theoretical explanation of the long-term growth momentum and the short-term growth rate decline in the current economic growth are given,and the future economic growth space is analyzed and forecasted.Finally,according to the above analysis,the paper puts forward the policy to enhance the long-term growth ability and achieve short-term steady growth of China's economy.The results of study show that:firstly,the underlying reason for the decline of real economic growth rate in recent years is the decline of the potential growth rate.Secondly,labor,capital,technology and other factors of supply changes resulting in a decline in the potential growth rate.Thirdly,the real economic growth rate fell more than the potential growth rate,in the short term,the economy still have room to growth but by constraints of the potential growth rate the growth space is limited.Fourthly,due to the limited role of demand policy space,the macro-control policy orientation should turn to supply policy-based supplement with demand policy.