An Empirical Study On The Short-term Economic Growth Based On Monetary Velocity

Since Adams Smith research the path of national wealth increase, economic growththeory has a history of245years. The two hundred years is the fastest times of developmentof human economy. no doubt the economic growth theory has inestimable effect to moderneconomy rapid growth. However, economic growth theories pay more attention to thelong-term economic growth studies, so it is difficult to give short-term strategy tactics guideof macroscopical. From this point of view, it has great theoretical significance to study theshort term-economic growth, to make the link between the short-term economic growth andthe reality of government macroscopical and decision-making link. From the perspective, Ithas have very strong realistic meaning to establish short-term economic growth model tostrengthen the economic fluctuation early warning, identify the economy bubble, which themacroeconomic authorities is lack of warning guide the economy in the short term stableoperation, reduce economic fluctuation, alleviate the economic crisis the impact on people.First, the paper introduces the status of research in the velocity of circulation of moneyand economic growth theory in china and abroad, then analyses the economic growth theory,and get the Conclusion, which is necessity to study of short-term growth theory. This papersummarizes the short-term factors which have effects on economic growth, constructed theshort-term economic growth function, and explains the process of the variable interaction intheoretically; put forward the method to identify economic bubble. After a series ofpreparations, the paper establishes the short-term economic growth model which based on thecirculation speed of currency, and studies the specific process of each short-term variable,through the vector error correction model and the pulse analysis. Finally, the articlesummarizes the economic sense of each variable, and depicts the role of each variable inmacro-control.