A Study Of Impact Of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership On China's Textile Import And Export Trade

On October 5,TPP,which was leaded by the United States and other 12 countries,achieved a "substantive breakthrough"----ending a nearly five-year negotiation and basically reaching an agreement.On February 2016,twelve TPP member states'representatives attended the signing ceremony in Auckland and the TPP was formally signed.However,RCEP negotiation,which was originally scheduled at the end of 2015,did not end on time.According to the resolution of the ASEAN summit,the time of reaching a basic agreement of RCEP negotiation will be delayed until 2016.In the case of the TPP soon coming into effect,different sectors in China will suffer from different degrees of impact.Many scholars suggested that China should actively promote the RCEP negotiation to cope with this situation.This investigation focused on Chinese textile sector which will be greatly affected by the TPP.The main research method is to combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.First of all,combining with the core of the theory of regional economic integration----customs union theory,the paper qualitatively analyzed the effect of RCEP on China's textile import and export trade.Then the paper analyzed the RCEP related content and the present situation of the textile trade between China and the RCEP members.And then use Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)was used to quantitatively analyze the economic effects of zero-tarifiF treatment on China?s textile trade which was realized by RCEP.Finally,basing on the simulation results,this paper put forward some countermeasures for the development of China's textile import and export trade under the RCEP framework.The simulation results proved that the implementation of the RCEP could expand the scale of textile import and export of China and further expand the share of Chinese textile in the world market.More importantly,it could also offset the shocks of the TPP to China's textile industry.The implementation of the RCEP not only brought positive impact on China's textile industry but also increased the level of social welfare in China.However,the RCEP also made Chinese textile face more fierce competitions.The simulation results proved that the textile industry of South Korea,Japan and Vietnam would develop faster than China's under the RCEP framework and their textile would become more competitive than Chinese textile.Therefore,under the RCEP framework,the key point of the development of China's textile industry in the future is to enhance the technical levels and increase product added value,so as to enhance the competitive advantage of Chinese textile in RCEP member states.The research of this paper presented important significance in theory and reality.This paper was not limited in the influence of the RCEP on a nation's macroeconomic,but went deeply into a specific industry sector.And few studies focused on quantitative analysis of the RCEP both domestic and abroad,so in terms of the theoretical meaning,this paper is a complement of quantitative research about the impact of RCEP on China's textile industry.In addition,the study of this paper presented more practical value.In terms of the nation,in the important period of the negotiation of RCEP,the study of this paper could provide the basis for China's negotiation in the textile sector,it also presented important reference value on China's textile industry policy.In terms of the enterprise,the research contents and conclusions of this paper is helpful to the China's textile foreign trade enterprises to understand the changes in the environment of import and export after RCEP taking effect,and it also helps enterprises to adjust strategy in time and helps enterprises to improve competitiveness,so as to promote the development of the China's textile industry.This paper creatively chose the China's textile industry which was deeply shocked by the TPP as the study object,and concretely studied the influence of the RCEP on China's textile industry.The study used GTAP model for quantitative analysis of the digital impact of RCEP on China's textile trade,and it also verified that the establishment of RCEP is to be able to offset the shocks of the TPP to China's textile industry.At last,according to the impact of RCEP,this paper put forward some suggestions for the development of China's textile import and export trade under the RCEP framework in the future.All the above aspects were the innovation points of this paper.However,at the same time,shortcomings also existed in this paper.First of all,static GTAP model presented some limitations;Secondly,in addition to the tariff reduction,other terms of RCEP will also have impact on textile trade,so more factors will be put into the analysis framework in the further study.